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-   -   North Korea conducts another nuclear test... (http://www.socnet.com/showthread.php?t=86593)

BrittleHair 25 May 2009 00:21

North Korea conducts another nuclear test...
 
By Jon Herskovitz

SEOUL, May 25 (Reuters) - North Korea's apparent nuclear test on Monday could push the reclusive state deeper into isolation, while giving leader Kim Jong-il a boost at home and forcing the United States to make Pyongyang one of its top policy priorities.

* The test is one of North Korea's biggest provocations, which could mean its recent cycle of sabre-rattling will slow down. This could mean any harm done to regional financial markets in the immediate aftermath of the test will be short-lived.

* The test could increase the security threat posed by North Korea if data indicates it has produced a better design for a nuclear weapon after its first test in October 2006 was only seen as a partial success because of its low yield.

* North Korea will alienate China, its last major ally and biggest benefactor. It will likely be hit with further U.N. sanctions as a result because Beijing may not use its U.N. Security Council veto to protect Pyongyang, which will also take a hit financially for the large costs it takes to conduct a test.

* But since the isolated North may already feel the pinch from a tightening of existing U.N. sanctions called for in response to an April rocket launch, it may believe the economic damage that would come after a nuclear test would not deal too heavy a blow to its already wobbly economy.

* North Korea will likely restart all of its Yongbyon nuclear plant, which provides the state with arms grade plutonium and was being taken apart under a disarmament-for-aid deal among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States.

It will take about a year to restart the entire plant, experts say, which can provide it with enough fissile material each year for one nuclear bomb.

* The North said last month it had restarted its facility at Yongbyon that separates plutonium from spent fuel rods cooling at the plant, which could eventually give it enough fissile material for one more nuclear bomb.

* A second nuclear test depletes the North's meagre supply of fissile material, which experts say is estimated to be enough for six to eight nuclear weapons.

* A second nuclear test will be heralded by the North's propaganda machinery as a triumph for leader Kim Jong-il and his "military-first" policy. This will help Kim further solidify his leadership after questions were raised about his grip on power after he was suspected of suffering a stroke in August.

* North Korea will try to force the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama to recognise it as a nuclear weapons state and force him into direct talks. The North for years has used its military threat to squeeze concessions out of major powers

From: http://www.reuters.com/article/lates.../idUSSEO144391


No mention on the yield of the device or whether we have been able to confirm it was a true nuclear-explosion.

How do you guys think this is going to play out?

Personally, I think we will continue to provide humanitarian assistance to North Korea, despite the sabre rattling. By feeding their population we will continue to free up monies for their nuclear program which would otherwise have to be spent on food. I don't think we will apply any real pressure aside from a few angry words and promises not to lift any current sanctions. I don't think we have the backbone to pull our aid to the country and allow more people to starve in an effort to force a change in behavior.

Dark Helmet 25 May 2009 00:33

This is really scary.

redhawk 25 May 2009 04:03

Will that fucker just die already... :mad:

He is a ticking time bomb and I'm afraid if he doesn't die soon he's going to kill a lot of people... as if he already hasn't.

bobofthedesert 25 May 2009 07:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by redhawk (Post 1154234)
He's going to kill a lot of people... as if he already hasn't.

He has. His own. Starvation.

grog18b 25 May 2009 08:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrittleHair (Post 1154216)
How do you guys think this is going to play out?

That's the simple question to answer.




BOOM!

x7-8


Then... The return packages will arrive. China can build the world's largest Walmart on the site, using what used to be North Korea as a giant glass parking lot. It will save tons on shipping costs, but everyone would have to go there, instead of their local Walmarts.

iraqgunz 25 May 2009 09:27

I believe that this will also embolden Iran to continue down their own path because they have seen just how UN-united the world is. I am really concerned that these clowns are going to sell some of this material to a third party.

KS11 25 May 2009 09:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrittleHair (Post 1154216)
How do you guys think this is going to play out?

Personally, I think we will continue to provide humanitarian assistance to North Korea, despite the sabre rattling. By feeding their population we will continue to free up monies for their nuclear program which would otherwise have to be spent on food. I don't think we will apply any real pressure aside from a few angry words and promises not to lift any current sanctions. I don't think we have the backbone to pull our aid to the country and allow more people to starve in an effort to force a change in behavior.

I'm not well versed on North Korea, so I ask this as an honest question...By providing aid, are we really freeing up money for the nuclear program? It seems like he doesn't give a shit about the people and wouldn't use the money to feed them regardless.

By at least providing some aid, are we gaining any type of leverage at all? (With the general population, etc)

KS11 25 May 2009 10:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraqgunz (Post 1154256)
I believe that this will also embolden Iran to continue down their own path because they have seen just how UN-united the world is. I am really concerned that these clowns are going to sell some of this material to a third party.

Iran needs to be dealt with. I'm sitting right in the place they want to hit the most. My wife isn't gonna be too happy if I come home extra crispy...:biggrin:

10thvet 25 May 2009 10:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by KS11 (Post 1154264)
I'm not well versed on North Korea, so I ask this as an honest question...By providing aid, are we really freeing up money for the nuclear program? It seems like he doesn't give a shit about the people and wouldn't use the money to feed them regardless.

By at least providing some aid, are we gaining any type of leverage at all? (With the general population, etc)

He does not give a shit about his ppl, his ppl think that he the "living mesiah" (for lack of a better phrase). He controls everything the NK ppl see, hear , read, understand, eat, drive and use...He controls everthing in their day to day life and his propaganda machine is top notch in NK. We would not gain anything in the general popualtion since no matter what we give the ppl, they will beilve it comes from him

KS11 25 May 2009 10:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10thvet (Post 1154268)
He does not give a shit about his ppl, his ppl think that he the "living mesiah" (for lack of a better phrase). He controls everything the NK ppl see, hear , read, understand, eat, drive and use...He controls everthing in their day to day life and his propaganda machine is top notch in NK. We would not gain anything in the general popualtion since no matter what we give the ppl, they will beilve it comes from him

That's pretty much the way I understood it. Sucks to be them. It's hard to know the truth when the "truth" is what you're told it is. I'd say, "Fuck 'em, they could rise up and take control", but in reality, they're probably too far in the dark to know any better. They're so far down the slippery slope, it's near impossible for them to get back up it.

Box 25 May 2009 11:16

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0hk9vaqWUg

BrittleHair 25 May 2009 12:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraqgunz (Post 1154256)
I believe that this will also embolden Iran to continue down their own path because they have seen just how UN-united the world is. I am really concerned that these clowns are going to sell some of this material to a third party.




Right on time:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/...a.ahmadinejad/

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Monday ruled out nuclear negotiations with other nations, saying, "Iran's nuclear issue is over, in our opinion."


Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

At a news conference in Tehran, the hardline president also said that if re-elected he again will call for a debate with President Obama.

Ahmadinejad previously urged a debate with President Bush and offered to debate both Obama and Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain during last year's U.S. presidential campaign.

The Iranian presidential election is June 12.

"I will extend that invitation one more time, so that there and then at the United Nations headquarters, President Obama sits there at the table and discusses world issues management and the way toward peace," Ahmadinejad said, according to a live translation of his remarks.

Like the Bush administration, the Obama White House suspects that Iran is working to build nuclear weapons under the guise of a nuclear energy program -- an allegation Ahmadinejad denies.

But Ahmadinejad said Monday that Iran will operate "only within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency," the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

Any talks outside that agency will focus only on "management of world issues and establishment of peace and security, which is lasting for everyone in the world," Ahmadinejad said.

Speaking on a day that North Korea conducted a second nuclear bomb test in defiance of international warnings, Ahmadinejad was asked whether his country has cooperated with Pyonyang on nuclear efforts.

"There is no cooperation between us," he said. "We're opposed to nuclear proliferation; we're opposed to storing nukes. We have announced this repeatedly."

He added that he believes "countries like America are not able to manage the political atmosphere" surrounding such issues.

BrittleHair 25 May 2009 12:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by KS11 (Post 1154273)
That's pretty much the way I understood it. Sucks to be them. It's hard to know the truth when the "truth" is what you're told it is. I'd say, "Fuck 'em, they could rise up and take control", but in reality, they're probably too far in the dark to know any better. They're so far down the slippery slope, it's near impossible for them to get back up it.

I watched a very interesting National Geographic Special on North Korea where they dedicated several minutes to explain how much of an impact smuggled cell phones were having on the North Korean population.

Apparently smuggled cell phones and wireless internet connections have given many North Koreans (near the border) their first real opportunity to receive un-censored information about the world and it is having a tremendous impact on the attitudes of the population. The Penalty for having one is death, of course.

Titleist 25 May 2009 13:30

John Bolton called it earlier this week, and Kim Jong-Il proved him right. This time, the North Koreans got their money’s worth out of a nuclear test, setting off a device that produced a yield similar to that of the Hiroshima blast in 1945:
North Korea on Monday appeared to have detonated a nuclear device, its second such test in three years.
The U.S. Geological Survey said it detected a magnitude-4.7 earthquake in the region, and South Korea’s Cabinet convened in an emergency session, according to Yonhap, South Korea’s semi-official newswire.
Yonhap also said the North had confirmed the test.
Combined with the previous failure, the North Koreans have enough data to gain important technical improvements in their design. The Washington Times notes that the first failure practically guaranteed another test, regardless of the state of relations between Pyongyang, Washington, and the rest of the six-party members. The failure almost certainly threatened the lives of the people in the program, mainly for the embarrassment it showered on Dear Leader. Now they have proven their design upgrades, which means that Pyongyang can proceed on a path of arming itself — and enriching itself by proliferating the designs and the weapons to others.
How many bombs does Kim still have? Experts predicted that Kim only had enough plutonium for six to eight weapons before shuttering the Yongbyon reactor that produced it. After two tests, Kim has to be running low on bombs — or perhaps just plutonium devices. The six-party talks tried getting Kim to admit to working in parallel on highly-enriched uranium weapons, the same kind of bombs Iran is pursuing.
President Obama issued a cautious reaction, one that Kim will find much to his liking:

Today, North Korea said that it has conducted a nuclear test in violation of international law. It appears to also have attempted a short range missile launch. These actions, while not a surprise given its statements and actions to date, are a matter of grave concern to all nations. North Korea’s attempts to develop nuclear weapons, as well as its ballistic missile program, constitute a threat to international peace and security.
By acting in blatant defiance of the United Nations Security Council, North Korea is directly and recklessly challenging the international community. North Korea’s behavior increases tensions and undermines stability in Northeast Asia. Such provocations will only serve to deepen North Korea’s isolation. It will not find international acceptance unless it abandons its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.
The danger posed by North Korea’s threatening activities warrants action by the international community. We have been and will continue working with our allies and partners in the Six-Party Talks as well as other members of the U.N. Security Council in the days ahead.

“Warrants action”? Well, I’d guess that the President wants another strongly-worded memo from the UN Security Council. After the last missile launch, China and Russia refused to agree to even that much until a lot of arm-twisting produced … a weakly-worded memo. We now have had three administrations pursue negotiations through the UN and through regional talks, mostly consisting of showering Kim with money, food, and fuel, and getting almost nothing concrete in return. Even Yongbyon’s destruction, one of the few tangible results of the diplomacy, is in the process of being reversed.
We’ll see if POTUS offers anything more emphatic in dealing with Pyongyang. Thus far, Kim seems remarkably unimpressed with the new American President, as do the Iranians. But hey, they’re just tiny countries compared to the old Soviet Union, so they’re not a threat … right?

grog18b 25 May 2009 15:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Titleist (Post 1154326)
... But hey, they’re just tiny countries compared to the old Soviet Union, so they’re not a threat … right?

It's hard to say, when your remains glow in the dark...


The Israelis know how to deal with this problem. Strike hard, strike fast, and strike now. We will do none of those things, and it will be too late or...

we can destroy them now, and keep the death toll low. Kim has taken every cent we have given him, and turned it into weapons. NONE of that money went to feed his people, and the actual food he got, he sold for money to buy more weapons. NK HAS attacked first in the past. Kim is becoming impatient, as his plan for a "reunification" take over of the south is not working fast enough. Too many of those anti-war college kids he was preaching to have learned the economic lessons of the North, and they don't want any part of it. Not working. The invasion tunnels we discovered in the 80s didn't work either. Neither did the scuba teams that were blown out of the water. It's just one more tactic to try to capture the south. Now the nukes. He suddenly has a saber to rattle that is getting world attention.


...although, he may not like the "attention" he gets...

Titleist 25 May 2009 19:13

Not to sound like a "Pollyanna" on this subject...but the silence is deafening.

campjwIII 25 May 2009 22:25

And it gets worse...
 
North Korea has just put a short range missile on a launch pad.

Parajuevos 26 May 2009 00:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrittleHair (Post 1154303)
Right on time:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/...a.ahmadinejad/



Speaking on a day that North Korea conducted a second nuclear bomb test in defiance of international warnings, Ahmadinejad was asked whether his country has cooperated with Pyonyang on nuclear efforts.

"There is no cooperation between us," he said. "We're opposed to nuclear proliferation; we're opposed to storing nukes. We have announced this repeatedly."

Kim is a madman and a liar. Ahmadinejad is a madman and a liar.

If I'm not mistaken, Iran is a client of North Korea, in the Nuclear Weapons Technology Department. Perhaps, as I heard it said on a program, earlier in the week, Kim had to demonstrate to his client,Ahmadinejad, that he could produce a weapon, if he was to have any hope of keeping his customer.

If I were living in Japan, South Korea, or even Alaska, I would be concerned about the future capabilities of North Korea. Even though we could annihilate North Korea, how many of our citizens or those of our allies would have to die first? Do we dare think of preemtion? It's probably not even on the table but what's wrong with putting it there as one of our options?

Iran needs to be dealt with yesterday. It will be inexcusable to allow them to have a nuclear capability and the means of taking out any country, in the Middle East, particularly Israel, a country that they have already made it perfectly clear that they would like to wipe off the map.

For those who say it is hypocritical to have an attitude of nuclear exclusion as relates to North Korea and Iran, when countries who have the capability are voicing these concerns, I say; would you give a schizophrenic an AR 15, loaded with a fully loaded magazine and send him out onto a city street? We can't allow these two countries, with their moronic leaders to make the world any more unsafe than it already is, but I doubt that the leaders of our country or any other country, in the western world, will face the problem, in any meaningful way, until large numbers of people die at the hands of these fanatics.

ET1/ss nuke 26 May 2009 06:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by campjwIII (Post 1154480)
North Korea has just put a short range missile on a launch pad.

I don't think Japan is going to just sit and wait for it. We have enough ocean between us and Korea for the US public to not take the threat seriously, and South Korea already faces death daily just from all the artillery zeroed in on Seoul. The news that Kim's test is "comparable to Nagasaki" isn't going to sit well in Hiroshima and Nagasaki just a couple of months after Kim launched a missile over Japan.

SIERRA_339 26 May 2009 08:43

Israel, Japan and the other neighboring countries are going to have to
"deal" with them. (NK and Iran)

All the UN is going to do is chastise them with foul UN language and a hit them with a feather duster. The US will not be allowed to do anything more than that either.


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