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-   -   ISIS & Pakistan (http://www.socnet.com/showthread.php?t=128466)

RedBull 13 November 2016 15:46

ISIS & Pakistan
 
So since its been claimed, the Sufi bombing in pakistan was by Daesh. I said it here once before, since early 2015 they've been pushing into Pakistan. They have active units in quetta & the balochistan, s & n waziristan region.

After Raqqa mark my words, the next area will be the afgh/pak border (afgh your looking at khost,paktika,paktia mainly, Pakistan is quetta & s waziristan) and it will be next to impossible to get them out of those areas. I have friends in quetta, they are openly recruiting disenfranchised AQ, Taliban and other fighters into their ranks. The radicals are about to get worse, and with the fracturing of the Taliban groups, they will grow. I find it worrying that ISIS can make inroads so easy into quetta (where the shura council's happen) so easily. While we may have knocked down the AQ and Taliban in the border we've created the perfect storm for ISIS to take hold. While the Taliban like to act and say they are in control, youth jihadists are still flocking to the dieing movement (ISIS is duieing in land but not ideology)

What's your opinion/outlook

Maverick 13 November 2016 23:34

It really comes down to resources. As we've been shutting down our outposts throughout Afghanistan over the past few years, we've lost our ability to monitor these regions. We've turned areas over to ANA/ANP etc, but they're pretty worthless.

One thing I've been surprised about, is the lack of cooperation between ISIL, Taliban, and any left over AQ in Afghanistan. This may have changed over the past year or two though. As ISIL began pushing into the regions, it appeared as though they demanded the Taliban join ISIS...After years of war, the Taliban have figured out that they don't have to do too much...and we will leave sooner or later. I have little doubt that there will be a proxy war in Afghanistan between Iranian backed ISIL and Pakistani backed Taliban factions once the US is out.

In Afghanistan, ISIS/ISIL appear to be the drunk assholes that showed up late and they're pissing everyone else off at the party. Of course, they still need killing.

Sharky 13 November 2016 23:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedBull (Post 1058610675)
So since its been claimed, the Sufi bombing in pakistan was by Daesh. I said it here once before, since early 2015 they've been pushing into Pakistan. They have active units in quetta & the balochistan, s & n waziristan region.

After Raqqa mark my words, the next area will be the afgh/pak border (afgh your looking at khost,paktika,paktia mainly, Pakistan is quetta & s waziristan) and it will be next to impossible to get them out of those areas. I have friends in quetta, they are openly recruiting disenfranchised AQ, Taliban and other fighters into their ranks. The radicals are about to get worse, and with the fracturing of the Taliban groups, they will grow. I find it worrying that ISIS can make inroads so easy into quetta (where the shura council's happen) so easily. While we may have knocked down the AQ and Taliban in the border we've created the perfect storm for ISIS to take hold. While the Taliban like to act and say they are in control, youth jihadists are still flocking to the dieing movement (ISIS is duieing in land but not ideology)

What's your opinion/outlook



If you see our mutual friend in Erbil again, give him my regards. Hope the dip resupply lasted you for a while. Keep up the good work.

Oldpogue 14 November 2016 12:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedBull (Post 1058610675)
So since its been claimed, the Sufi bombing in pakistan was by Daesh. I said it here once before, since early 2015 they've been pushing into Pakistan. They have active units in quetta & the balochistan, s & n waziristan region.

After Raqqa mark my words, the next area will be the afgh/pak border (afgh your looking at khost,paktika,paktia mainly, Pakistan is quetta & s waziristan) and it will be next to impossible to get them out of those areas. I have friends in quetta, they are openly recruiting disenfranchised AQ, Taliban and other fighters into their ranks. The radicals are about to get worse, and with the fracturing of the Taliban groups, they will grow. I find it worrying that ISIS can make inroads so easy into quetta (where the shura council's happen) so easily. While we may have knocked down the AQ and Taliban in the border we've created the perfect storm for ISIS to take hold. While the Taliban like to act and say they are in control, youth jihadists are still flocking to the dieing movement (ISIS is duieing in land but not ideology)

What's your opinion/outlook

It all depends on whether ISI has seen the evils of their ways and have quit giving tacit help to the Taliban. You probably have a better handle on which way Pakistan's Intelligence agency is leaning these days than I do. What have you heard?

1RiserSlip 14 November 2016 14:28

Both hate us. One just wants our money.

CA SGT 14 November 2016 19:24

We give GWOT money to Pakistan.
Pakistan funds the ISI
The ISI gives money and support to the Taliban, along with a couple other countries.

One big circle jerk

Oldpogue 14 November 2016 20:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by CA SGT (Post 1058611028)
We give GWOT money to Pakistan.
Pakistan funds the ISI
The ISI gives money and support to the Taliban, along with a couple other countries.

One big circle jerk

The ISI has always been in bed with Al Queda and the Taliban. I think that some things may have changed over the last five years due to internal conflicts. ISIS IS not the same animal so I would be interested to see which way they are leaning these days.

jdogonroad 14 November 2016 22:33

What I don't understand is the fact that ISIS is predominately Sunni, and Iranians are predominantly Shia. I thought they were enemies so to speak? Is Afghanistan and Pakistan Shia or Sunni?

RedBull 15 November 2016 14:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oldpogue (Post 1058610939)
It all depends on whether ISI has seen the evils of their ways and have quit giving tacit help to the Taliban. You probably have a better handle on which way Pakistan's Intelligence agency is leaning these days than I do. What have you heard?

ISI is still supporting both ttp and the afgh taliban (as well as others). Nothing really has changed. On one hand the pak military cracked down but the isi still funds their groups and maintains influence

RedBull 15 November 2016 14:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdogonroad (Post 1058611078)
What I don't understand is the fact that ISIS is predominately Sunni, and Iranians are predominantly Shia. I thought they were enemies so to speak? Is Afghanistan and Pakistan Shia or Sunni?

Iran does not support isil*or Daesh or Isis whatever you wish to call them) the Taliban and AQ don't as there's issues with Baghdadi declaring himself caliphate leader. In the past though Iran funded & supported Sunni jihadists in the north and nw as the Shia militancy wasn't popular up there.

RedBull 15 November 2016 14:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maverick (Post 1058610817)
It really comes down to resources. As we've been shutting down our outposts throughout Afghanistan over the past few years, we've lost our ability to monitor these regions. We've turned areas over to ANA/ANP etc, but they're pretty worthless.

One thing I've been surprised about, is the lack of cooperation between ISIL, Taliban, and any left over AQ in Afghanistan. This may have changed over the past year or two though. As ISIL began pushing into the regions, it appeared as though they demanded the Taliban join ISIS...After years of war, the Taliban have figured out that they don't have to do too much...and we will leave sooner or later. I have little doubt that there will be a proxy war in Afghanistan between Iranian backed ISIL and Pakistani backed Taliban factions once the US is out.

In Afghanistan, ISIS/ISIL appear to be the drunk assholes that showed up late and they're pissing everyone else off at the party. Of course, they still need killing.

Iran isn't backing isil(isis or Daesh as they are known) if anything Iran will end up supporting the baloch groups to undermine the pak/China deal/gwader port. Or use returning afgh refugees to spread Shia fundmentalism. In the past Iran dabbled with AQ&Taliban groups but their support (if any) is negligible now. It's much easier to send back Shia converts to wage war then it is to support crazies who at end of day won't push their agenda.

RedBull 15 November 2016 17:13

What you will probably see with the fall of Raqqa is ISIS (ISIL OR DAESH) assimilate into other groups(Taliban, AQ-Yemen,Libya,Iraq etc) and or their leadership who managed or already escape pop up with new jihadist groups. In which case some groups might have increased capabilities due to knowledge/experience to carry out more sophisticated attacks. I personally think the afgh/pak area is perfect breeding ground, due to the economyof the area, large jihadi sympathetic population and the fragile state of AS,Taliban etc from continued coalition strikes (leadership deaths) its going to be a huge cesspool jihadi breeding ground. But unlike before, if ISIS leaders get a foothold you'll see more complex attacks (ISIS has had good opportunities and uses its advantage to recruit everyone from middle schoolers to well educated people.

Tracy 15 November 2016 21:21

ISIL moving into Pakistan? Couldn't happen to a nicer country.

RedBull 16 November 2016 04:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tracy (Post 1058611356)
ISIL moving into Pakistan? Couldn't happen to a nicer country.


They've already been there (smaller groups pledging allegiance) but never really did much other than shitty local propaganda.
I agree though Pakistan has dished out support for years now to jihadists. It's about time it bites them majorly in the ass. Hopefully it'll get the ISI overhauled and the sympathisers out positions of power.(unlikely)


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