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  #201  
Old 15 August 2019, 08:51
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Originally Posted by Steve83 View Post
At a certain point, if you're a PM of a pension/mutual/sovereign wealth fund, you can longer justify buying any countries debt that isn't the US or Canada and you have to plow into US treasuries. So they've been plowing into the long end of the Yield curve at the same time the short end was being targeted by the Fed to rise. So, there was never any incentive to buy the short end anyway. Thus the inversion.
That makes sense. Thanks!
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  #202  
Old 9 March 2020, 11:07
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... You can bet though that if there's a recession coming, it'll get here just in time for the elections.
Coincidence? Or Clairvoyant?

Circuit Breakers triggered.
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  #203  
Old 9 March 2020, 11:53
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Weird how two adversaries just happen to get into a tussle using oil, just before our elections.
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  #204  
Old 9 March 2020, 13:18
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Lightbulb

A recession is 2 consecutive quarters with declining GDP. We will probably have one at least, however anything beyond that is probably speculation right now.

When there is panic in the streets, buy.
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  #205  
Old 9 March 2020, 13:23
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Originally Posted by CV View Post
Weird how two adversaries just happen to get into a tussle using oil, just before our elections.
Meh, hasn’t that been brewing for a bit? Is SA really our “adversary” or someone we get long with, kind of? Last time I checked they were still buying US Mil hardware, so not an adversary.

In short, Russian wants to break our shale production. SA isn’t that pinpointed WRT supply and demand. Russia also has been building coffers and (IIRC) doesn’t need to have oil at $50 bbl for their economy. SA is trying to punish Russia for not going along with OPECs decision to cut production. Let them have it out
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  #206  
Old 9 March 2020, 13:37
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This is how MBS repays Trump for letting him chop up a Washington Post reporter without retribution? He should be drone striked in his palace for this outrage.
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  #207  
Old 9 March 2020, 13:55
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Lowered price of oil will lower price of gas, which will have every Billy Bob voting Trump. The threat is that lowered transportation prices will have all the money grubbing globalists importing more Chinesium crap.

Time to raise tariffs to offset lowered energy prices. S/F...Ken M
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  #208  
Old 9 March 2020, 14:42
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Originally Posted by MakoZeroSix View Post
This is how MBS repays Trump for letting him chop up a Washington Post reporter without retribution? He should be drone striked in his palace for this outrage.
I'm trying to figure out why this is so bad for us?

If anything it gives the President a talking point about American energy independence and hits Moscow.

As HM said, they can absorb an impact below a certain price per barrel but not for a long period of time.
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  #209  
Old 9 March 2020, 15:20
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When there is panic in the streets, buy.
I tried to time mine with the Fed rate cut earlier this month, foolishly thinking it would be the end of the dip Clearly underestimated the seriousness of this disaster and (in the short-term) wasted some opportunity$$$.

BLUF: you let me know where the bottom is and I'll follow your lead maybe the two of us can jumpstart the economy again
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  #210  
Old 9 March 2020, 15:43
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I'm trying to figure out why this is so bad for us?

If anything it gives the President a talking point about American energy independence and hits Moscow.

As HM said, they can absorb an impact below a certain price per barrel but not for a long period of time.
It's a combination of factors.

1. The high-yield debt market was showing some worrying signs. Though, this might of been explained by Kraft-Heinz downgrade to BBB. There's a problem with some Shale companies that make up about 10% of that (Junk Bond) market.

2. The jobs report from Mid-Late February was fantastic, all things considered. But we're probably going to start seeing a slowdown somewhere. Eventually Airlines and Hotels will start feeling the pain.

The problem before was that Hotels and some other companies were having a hard time finding workers. Now, some are using cost-cutting measures. We'll see how that goes.


For the markets:

It was pointed out that although gold is rising and oil is falling, gold-miners were selling off. This is likely a result of a few L/S funds blowing up and selling positions to cover margin.
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  #211  
Old 9 March 2020, 16:00
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The problem before was that Hotels and some other companies were having a hard time finding workers. Now, some are using cost-cutting measures. We'll see how that goes.
That can be directly linked to higher minimum wages (city, county, state), sick time and scheduling ordinances.

We are getting plenty of applicants in my industry but it's more difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff and the rising costs of labor require an increase in efficiency or a reduction in services.

The cost per hire was skyrocketing along with turnover until we completely revamped our recruiting process which most companies are loath to do. For us it is an opportunity and we are branching out to other industries to provide staffing services.
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  #212  
Old 9 March 2020, 16:18
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Originally Posted by Balls View Post
I tried to time mine with the Fed rate cut earlier this month, foolishly thinking it would be the end of the dip Clearly underestimated the seriousness of this disaster and (in the short-term) wasted some opportunity$$$.

BLUF: you let me know where the bottom is and I'll follow your lead maybe the two of us can jumpstart the economy again
I bought today. Just somethings that took a steep nose dive, like down 50% on the day. The cost was minimal and when it recovers to its price before today I’ll have doubled my money. If it recovers to its yoy price I’ll be popping bottles with models
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  #213  
Old 9 March 2020, 16:53
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Originally Posted by Steve83 View Post
It's a combination of factors...
Thank you for the insights. They're appreciated.

My question was more directed at the other poster's comment vis-a-vis KSA's actions in the oil market having a supposedly devastating (or manipulative) impact on the US economy.
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  #214  
Old 9 March 2020, 17:04
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Originally Posted by MixedLoad View Post
Thank you for the insights. They're appreciated.

My question was more directed at the other poster's comment vis-a-vis KSA's actions in the oil market having a supposedly devastating (or manipulative) impact on the US economy.
Understood.

I've been looking at this stuff all day so it was at top-of-mind.

I think the answer to what you're looking for specifically might of been recently addressed in the "President Trump's real 2020 Threat" thread.
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  #215  
Old 9 March 2020, 17:10
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Originally Posted by Balls View Post
Coincidence? Or Clairvoyant?

Circuit Breakers triggered.
That was gimme.
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  #216  
Old 9 March 2020, 19:15
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*shrug*

Haven't "lost" anything. Just need to concentrate more to keep making money.
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  #217  
Old 9 March 2020, 19:51
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*shrug*

Haven't "lost" anything. Just need to concentrate more to keep making money.
It's not lost until you sell.
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  #218  
Old 9 March 2020, 19:53
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It's not lost until you sell.
I do agree. But what a gut punch its been.
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  #219  
Old 9 March 2020, 20:18
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Originally Posted by Hot Mess View Post
I bought today. Just somethings that took a steep nose dive, like down 50% on the day. The cost was minimal and when it recovers to its price before today I’ll have doubled my money. If it recovers to its yoy price I’ll be popping bottles with models
I bought with the same theory today. In for the long haul if I have to be.
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  #220  
Old 9 March 2020, 20:32
Dino0311 Dino0311 is offline
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I do agree. But what a gut punch its been.
Oh absolutely. But for me personally it was much worse in 2008. I was down something like 40% at one point. I switched to index funds and plowed money into the market every single paycheck and as the market came roaring back I came back with it. I don't plan to use any of this money for over twenty years. When I start to get close to that point I'll change my asset allocation.
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