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  #81  
Old 19 January 2016, 09:17
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Originally Posted by mdavid View Post
I'm in cash right now, missed some of the peak but pulled out early, paid off the house and cars a few years ago, no debt.
Since I don't understand the market I just buy SPX/IVV when I invest.

Biggest error my friends and coworkers have is they live way above their means, eat out too much and use credit for stupid things. Most folks aren't hurting financial from bad investing but rather bad living imo.

I'm looking to purchase when it looks like it's starting to recover. I'm interested in McDuff's statements as he sounds like he believes we're already at the bottom.

I couldn't tell you if we're at the bottom or not. Nobody can, reliably, despite the legions of talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg. For me it doesn't really matter either way though. I'm young enough that I can ride out until the bottom and continue to add to my positions in order to take advantage of the rally. I still have 30+ years to retirement though. The fact that there has never been a 15 year period in which stocks lost money is my friend. Were I older, I would have a more conservative allocation in order to mitigate my risks and cut down on possible losses. It's all about having an asset allocation which suits your risk tolerance, required returns, and investing horizon. A lot of investors invest too aggressively which leads them to sell when the market hits the bottom. That's rough and slows down their long term growth. They're better off having an initial allocation which is more conservative and actually allows them to let the market do its work.
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  #82  
Old 19 January 2016, 15:37
Noah Werka Noah Werka is offline
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[QUOTE=SATCOM;1058536902]Why do a cut/paste? Ensure you comment on things you post here and if it is referencing a published news story.... provide that link so that the Forum may see and review the source material for your post.

04:30PM: ... WASHINGTON (AP) Your cut/paste

"Why do a cut/paste? Ensure you comment on things you post here and if it is referencing a published news story.... provide that link so that the Forum may see and review the source material for your post."

OK:

This is an interesting take on things to come...

Can't post link because it was copied from a secure bank site with info that is private. No way to link to the article.

Noah W
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  #83  
Old 19 January 2016, 16:10
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Is this same article?

LINK

LLast week's harrowing plunge in U.S. stocks — fueled by economic fears about China and plummeting oil prices — left investors anxious and alarmed. Some wondered if it signaled an approaching recession in the United States.

The answer, most analysts say, is no.

The American economy is expected to prove resilient and nimble enough to avoid serious damage, at least anytime soon. For all the economy's challenges, the job market is strong, home sales are solid and cheaper gasoline has allowed consumers to spend more on cars, restaurants and online shopping.

The companies that make up major stock indexes are far more vulnerable than the economy itself is to distress abroad: Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index derived 48 percent of their revenue from abroad in 2014, up from 43 percent in 2003.

By contrast, exports account for only about 13 percent of the nation's gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of economic output. That's one of the lowest such shares in the world. Exports to China equal just 1 percent of GDP.

"While the U.S. economy's exposure to China is relatively small, the multinational companies that trade on the stock market are much more exposed," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

The S&P 500 sank 2.2 percent Friday and has tumbled 8 percent since the year began, deflated by expectations of even lower oil prices ahead and fears that China's once-explosive economy is slowing more than anyone had expected. On Friday, the Xinhua news agency reported that Chinese banks reduced loans last month from a year earlier.

It was the latest sign that China's economy continues to decelerate — an ominous trend for U.S. companies, like heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar, that have significant business there. (Caterpillar shares shed 2.7 percent Friday.)

"For many of these companies, the narrative behind their growth and earnings prospects is China," Zandi said. "If you throw that narrative out, investors get nervous."

The disconnect between the actual economy and the price of stocks isn't new. From the waning days of the Great Recession into the tepid recovery that followed, stocks managed to gradually rise despite persistently high unemployment and tepid economic growth. Now, the opposite seems true.

"Main Street is better, and Wall Street is suffering," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital.

The broadest gauges of the economy look fundamentally sound. GDP likely expanded 2.4 percent last year, according to JP Morgan Chase. Zandi foresees its growth hitting 2.8 percent in 2016 — hardly spectacular but decent, especially at a time when many industrialized economies are struggling to grow at all.

The job market appears particularly robust. Employers added an average of 221,000 jobs a month during 2015 and 284,000 a month from October through December. The unemployment rate has sunk from 10 percent in 2009 to 5 percent, a level associated with a healthy economy.

Improved job security — layoffs have slowed to exceptionally low levels — has helped embolden many Americans to shop. Consumer spending, which drives about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, rose at an annual rate of more than 3 percent in the spring and summer. Auto sales hit a record last year.

Not that the U.S. economy has been left unscathed by the weakness abroad. Partly because a stronger dollar has made their goods more expensive abroad, U.S. manufacturers are suffering.

Industrial production fell in December for a third straight month, the government said, and orders to factories dropped in November for the third time in four months. Last year, factories added just 30,000 jobs, the fewest since the recession year of 2009.

What's more, energy companies are reeling from sharply lower oil prices. And though falling oil prices have helped boost consumer spirits and encourage spending, they also helped slow the overall economy last year by causing energy companies to slash investment.

In addition, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it expects to further boost interest rates this year after raising them from record lows in December, and some fear it will move too fast. Fed hikes were considered a trigger for three of the past four recessions.

Economists don't entirely understand the links among the world's major economies. The International Monetary Fund has acknowledged surprise over just how much China's slowdown has hurt other countries in the developing world.

It's also possible that damage to the United States could prove worse than direct trade ties suggest. Wells Capital's Paulsen notes that small- and medium-sized U.S. companies supply the multinationals that do big business overseas. When exports falter, those companies can suffer in ways that don't show up in trade numbers.

Tumbling stock markets themselves can also cause economic damage, by making Americans who have money tied up in stocks feel poorer and less inclined to spend.

A month ago, Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, predicted that the U.S economy would grow 3 percent this year. Now he's considering cutting his forecast. He's not worried about the impact of economic weakness overseas. He's worried about the toll that falling stocks may take on consumer confidence.

Still, he doesn't think a recession is coming, no matter how scary the stock plunge of late.

As famed economist Paul Samuelson once quipped, "The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions."
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  #84  
Old 19 January 2016, 16:15
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The broadest gauges of the economy look fundamentally sound. GDP likely expanded 2.4 percent last year, according to JP Morgan Chase. Zandi foresees its growth hitting 2.8 percent in 2016 — hardly spectacular but decent, especially at a time when many industrialized economies are struggling to grow at all.
<3% is decent in Democrat administration and a cause for impeachment under a Republican.

My problem with GDP is that government spending is included. And since the government does not actually sell any product or service, every dollar it spends is devalued by the bureaucracy that distributes it.
So with massive government spending being factored into the GDP, it still can't get above 3%....That strikes me as indicating real bad problems for the economy.
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  #85  
Old 19 January 2016, 16:17
Noah Werka Noah Werka is offline
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[QUOTE=Streck-Fu;1058537026]Is this same article?

LINK

Yep... Thanks

Noah W
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  #86  
Old 19 January 2016, 16:18
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Originally Posted by Noah Werka View Post
If you are debt free, look into putting your all your assets into a Revocable Living Trust. You have total control over them... you just don't own them. It is a pretty good estate planning tool along with a Pour Over Will.

Noah W

I've been a financial advisor and economics professor for 20 years. This is strange advice in a thread about an impending recession. Very, very strange. And essentially accomplishes nothing in the realm of hedging.
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  #87  
Old 19 January 2016, 17:28
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I've been a financial advisor and economics professor for 20 years. This is strange advice in a thread about an impending recession. Very, very strange. And essentially accomplishes nothing in the realm of hedging.
I was thinking the same thing. A revocable trust is simply a document, which has the same SS# as the grantor, which distributes the assets upon death to named beneficiaries. You can invest, or not, in anything within said trust that you can in a non-trust account, IRA etc. It has nothing to do with investment philosophy, risk, etc.
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  #88  
Old 20 January 2016, 02:48
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So I guess it's time for me to be the Eeyore again.

I was reading this article that interviews William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements in which he has a lot of doom and gloom news for everyone to hear. So it's not just me this time, guys.

He basically reiterates a lot of what we've been hashing out earlier in this thread. Some of the key takeaway points I read were:

Quote:
"The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up,"
Quote:
Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief
Quote:
It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something
Quote:
The next task awaiting the global authorities is how to manage debt write-offs - and therefore a massive reordering of winners and losers in society - without setting off a political storm.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Smells like a global monetary reset that all the tinfoil hatters speak about. But that's just crazy talk! Just as crazy as those guys who spoke about the "rock solid" investment opporunities with mortgages back in 2007! Oh wait......

Quote:
The European banking system may have to be recapitalized on a scale yet unimagined, and new "bail-in" rules mean that any deposit holder above the guarantee of €100,000 will have to help pay for it.
Told y'all Cyprus was a Beta test.

Quote:
Mr White said QE and easy money policies by the US Federal Reserve and its peers have had the effect of bringing spending forward from the future in what is known as "inter-temporal smoothing". It becomes a toxic addiction over time and ultimately loses traction. In the end, the future catches up with you. "By definition, this means you cannot spend the money tomorrow," he said.
"Inter-temporal smoothing". Jesus Christ these people are so full of shit their eyes are brown. Just like the "Bespoke Tranche Opportunities" --- make shit sound so ridiculous that nobody know WTF you're talking about............then DEMAND that people have these ridiculous pedigrees to even remotely appear credible when they speak about the levels of bullshit piled higher than the Tower of Babel.

Next up, a flashback from 1988:



But this is just me being a typical chicken-little. No way this could ever happen. I mean, that's just crazy talk!
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  #89  
Old 20 January 2016, 08:27
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http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2...-oil-rout.html

Another brutal day ahead for the markets, as well as oil... $20 a barrel here we come!!
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  #90  
Old 20 January 2016, 09:03
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$20 a barrel is just fine.

I clearly remember on the initial run up, it was said all hell would break loose at $40. We went thru that and shot straight to $100.

Just settling back down to where it should be.
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  #91  
Old 20 January 2016, 11:36
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Problem with oil price crash is the same as house price crash. The oil companies and related firms are going to default on their debt much the same as the residential home owners.
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  #92  
Old 20 January 2016, 12:16
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Problem with oil price crash is the same as house price crash. The oil companies and related firms are going to default on their debt much the same as the residential home owners.
Yeah, but I'd bet none of these guys that default will be living on the street.
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  #93  
Old 20 January 2016, 13:04
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Originally Posted by DirtyDog0311 View Post
So I guess it's time for me to be the Eeyore again.

I was reading this article that interviews William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements in which he has a lot of doom and gloom news for everyone to hear. So it's not just me this time, guys.

He basically reiterates a lot of what we've been hashing out earlier in this thread. Some of the key takeaway points I read were:









HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Smells like a global monetary reset that all the tinfoil hatters speak about. But that's just crazy talk! Just as crazy as those guys who spoke about the "rock solid" investment opporunities with mortgages back in 2007! Oh wait......


Told y'all Cyprus was a Beta test.



"Inter-temporal smoothing". Jesus Christ these people are so full of shit their eyes are brown. Just like the "Bespoke Tranche Opportunities" --- make shit sound so ridiculous that nobody know WTF you're talking about............then DEMAND that people have these ridiculous pedigrees to even remotely appear credible when they speak about the levels of bullshit piled higher than the Tower of Babel.

Next up, a flashback from 1988:



But this is just me being a typical chicken-little. No way this could ever happen. I mean, that's just crazy talk!
You really, truly, think that the conditions are set for a global currency As in the whole world? Like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Iceland, China, et al?

Cypress is not the rest of EU. I don't imagine that anyone with a deposit of over 100k that has it raided is going to take that sitting down. The German's already weren't to happy about bailing out Greece, so I don't see accounts getting raided going to go without an uprising.

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Originally Posted by jdogonroad View Post
Yeah, but I'd bet none of these guys that default will be living on the street.
Actually, they probably will. The loans are to oil companies fracking and drilling, not exactly Exxon, and not exactly banks "to big to fail". However, the bankers that loaned them the money will probably get bonuses, so there's that.
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  #94  
Old 20 January 2016, 13:09
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Originally Posted by edd1e22 View Post
Problem with oil price crash is the same as house price crash. The oil companies and related firms are going to default on their debt much the same as the residential home owners.
The only people that got hurt were those that owned multiple properties and got severely upside down and were unable to sell (lots of Flippers thinking they can make a living in perpetuity) or those that had to sell their primary residence for a relocation or other reason.

Those the could afford the price and payment terms on their primary residence and did not lose an income would not be defaulting.

Remember all the newscasts about how horrible it was that people got upside down on their primary residence? What bullshit. The government and the media perpetuated that fallacy that house's value must always increase.
Too many people fail basic fucking economics.
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  #95  
Old 20 January 2016, 13:18
DirtyDog0311 DirtyDog0311 is offline
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Originally Posted by Streck-Fu View Post
Remember all the newscasts about how horrible it was that people got upside down on their primary residence? What bullshit. The government and the media perpetuated that fallacy that house's value must always increase.
Too many people fail basic fucking economics.
Yup. Too many dumbasses thinking they're going to get rich off of tulip bulbs.

What I find infuriating about that movie "the Big Short", which I still find to be an EXCELLENT movie, is the fact that they never ever mention the fact that the govt was primarily at fault by forcing banks to give out hundreds of thousands of $$$ to people who shouldn't even have had a $300 secured credit card.

The govt fucked over everyone with their bullshit Community Reinvestment Act that forced the "ninja" mortgages on the banks. The scumsucking banksters just figured out a way to profit off of the nonsense. Give a dog a steak, don't get pissed when he takes a bite. Doesn't excuse the bullshit, but it gives you a clearer picture of what REALLY went on.
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  #96  
Old 20 January 2016, 13:29
DirtyDog0311 DirtyDog0311 is offline
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You really, truly, think that the conditions are set for a global currency As in the whole world? Like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Iceland, China, et al?
Not just yet, however if the world goes to shit a lot of things that are impossible NOW will suddenly become a lot more attractive.

Imagine that if shit all goes down, people's savings are no more, hyperinflation is through the roof, etc, etc. Then people all come in promising 'we can fix this' by making individualized sovereign currencies the bad guy (they're already doing it with cash).

Don't put anything past these people. They're not stupid (not really), and collectively, "we" are. Especially when there's a crisis.

Besides, it's not like those in power have to answer to anyone. Remember, they're all part of a big club -- AND YOU AINT IN IT. What's to stop them from doing whatever the fuck they want if THEY all agree on it? There are plenty of people with badges and guns that'll gladly protect them if it comes down to it.

Quote:
Cypress is not the rest of EU. I don't imagine that anyone with a deposit of over 100k that has it raided is going to take that sitting down. The German's already weren't to happy about bailing out Greece, so I don't see accounts getting raided going to go without an uprising.
Uprising with what? They don't have any guns. They can't even manage an uprising when their entire heritage is being erased, their women are being raped wholesale, and their country is turning into a fucking madrasa. They'll be compliant little docile sheep that'll throw a few molotovs, blog about how pissed they are, maybe throw out a few impotent messages from a fat slob in a Guy Fawlkes mask -- but ultimately they'll go home, turn on Netflix, sit back and grudgingly go along with the program.

Unless things get so bad that they are starving. That's the ONLY thing I believe could propel them to any REAL action.
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Old 20 January 2016, 15:51
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Originally Posted by DirtyDog0311 View Post
Yup. Too many dumbasses thinking they're going to get rich off of tulip bulbs.

What I find infuriating about that movie "the Big Short", which I still find to be an EXCELLENT movie, is the fact that they never ever mention the fact that the govt was primarily at fault by forcing banks to give out hundreds of thousands of $$$ to people who shouldn't even have had a $300 secured credit card.

The govt fucked over everyone with their bullshit Community Reinvestment Act that forced the "ninja" mortgages on the banks. The scumsucking banksters just figured out a way to profit off of the nonsense. Give a dog a steak, don't get pissed when he takes a bite. Doesn't excuse the bullshit, but it gives you a clearer picture of what REALLY went on.
There are people that just aren't meant to be homeowners. I'm not meant to play basketball because I'm thin, short and white. It's just what it is. We can't diversify our way into an equitable market. It's just not happening. If you have a shitty credit score you don't get a house. It's that simple. I wish we still had the small, hometown local bank system that was enjoyed many years ago. You sat around a boardroom table and you talked about what you needed and why you needed it. And then you were responsible if things went south.


ETA: I actually got thrown out of a school board meeting for community leaders once because I told them diversification was stupid. I wanted the SB to hire whoever was the most qualified to teach my kids. I didn't care if it were a 200 year old green woman. They were on a kick to hire more male teachers at the time.

Last edited by Broker; 20 January 2016 at 15:58.
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  #98  
Old 20 January 2016, 16:05
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I wish we still had the small, hometown local bank system that was enjoyed many years ago. You sat around a boardroom table and you talked about what you needed and why you needed it. And then you were responsible if things went south.
Unless you were a minority and the bank looked at where you wanted to buy and denied your loan because you were trying to move into cracker town.

Or even if you wanted to buy in a neighborhood populated mainly by minorities - nah, too risky.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/05/28/evidence-that-banks-still-deny-black-borrowers-just-as-they-did-50-years-ago/
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  #99  
Old 20 January 2016, 16:38
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Originally Posted by DirtyDog0311 View Post
Not just yet, however if the world goes to shit a lot of things that are impossible NOW will suddenly become a lot more attractive.

Imagine that if shit all goes down, people's savings are no more, hyperinflation is through the roof, etc, etc. Then people all come in promising 'we can fix this' by making individualized sovereign currencies the bad guy (they're already doing it with cash).

Don't put anything past these people. They're not stupid (not really), and collectively, "we" are. Especially when there's a crisis.

Besides, it's not like those in power have to answer to anyone. Remember, they're all part of a big club -- AND YOU AINT IN IT. What's to stop them from doing whatever the fuck they want if THEY all agree on it? There are plenty of people with badges and guns that'll gladly protect them if it comes down to it.



Uprising with what? They don't have any guns. They can't even manage an uprising when their entire heritage is being erased, their women are being raped wholesale, and their country is turning into a fucking madrasa. They'll be compliant little docile sheep that'll throw a few molotovs, blog about how pissed they are, maybe throw out a few impotent messages from a fat slob in a Guy Fawlkes mask -- but ultimately they'll go home, turn on Netflix, sit back and grudgingly go along with the program.

Unless things get so bad that they are starving. That's the ONLY thing I believe could propel them to any REAL action.
What do you need guns for All you need is an internet connection and a computer. Guns are so 1776. But if they did want to get them all they have to do is go to the police station or military post (armory), isn't that what they did in the 1770's? I think your arguments are mainly horrid due to many reasons, but one of the biggest is that you look at the worlds problems through the lens of American culture, that's what is referred to as being "ethnocentric" What if the euros didn't have heat in the winter? What would happen if Mac Daddy Putin turned off the CNG spigot? Do you think everyone would sit in a huddled mass waiting to die? There are fractured groups of dissidents in Europe, and all they need is a catalysis to come together, the question is how many events, if any, will it take?

The people in "power" do in fact answer to someone, it is the Power Elite as described by Mills.
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  #100  
Old 20 January 2016, 17:21
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Originally Posted by KidA View Post
Unless you were a minority and the bank looked at where you wanted to buy and denied your loan because you were trying to move into cracker town.

Or even if you wanted to buy in a neighborhood populated mainly by minorities - nah, too risky.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/05/28/evidence-that-banks-still-deny-black-borrowers-just-as-they-did-50-years-ago/
Well sure there is that. And I don't question it.

I'm sure I'm not near alone in this: I had checked with the 'local' bank about 6 Mo.s prior to EAOS to ensure I did the right things to be able to purchase a car.

Oh, no problem they said, just come back, get employed and you'll be GTG.

I came back, did exactly that, gave it a year driving one POS/cash car, and then went in to get that assured loan.
"Who are you again?" No, sorry we cannot give you a loan."
Had to get my Dad to cosign for me. This after having performed well on a cosigned loan for a car at 16 y/o. And had a Credit Card, etc with no issues@ EAOS.

So in mind mind they, the 'local bank' were dishonest with me the first go round.
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