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  #221  
Old 9 August 2017, 12:23
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Originally Posted by Fubar View Post
Sixgun - I think you are under-estimating the amount of nationalism that is felt by our people when we are attacked. There will be a demand for blood. On all other fronts we agree.
yep...

I don't think (but I don't KNOW) that the NK program is as far along as the DIA suggests, so Maverick may be correct - or the DIA is correct...

I also believe that there would be a demand for blood - from "the people" - yet I also believe that we are far removed from the old paradigm where what "the people" demand is a factor in what our "betters" decide to do. They are "smarter" than we are, they understand the "consequences" better than we do, they can see "the big picture", they will use the event as an "opportunity" to return the world to a rational place of cooperation...

San Fran could burn and Pelosi would be in bed with her peace-niks demanding that POTUS consult with Congress - which is the law - while BHO goes on tour to tout the "international" solution. The Chamber of Commerce would explain what irradiating the Asian land mass would do to the economy...

As much as we would want blood:

China, India, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, Russia, Mongolia, Laos, Cambodia - well, they want to stay in existence...

The international consequences of nuking them sufficiently to ensure no further launches are simply too much for our spineless leadership (and most of the leftist-educated populace) to absorb...

I don't like it, but it is what it is. I'm just trying to point out that our options are far more constrained and complicated than a simple "Really, well we'll just nuke you into the stone-age" reply...
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  #222  
Old 9 August 2017, 12:45
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I think our American reply to any NORK attack on the US would take place far faster than anybody would imagine... the members of Congress would first hear of our retaliation long after it had taken place.
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  #223  
Old 9 August 2017, 12:51
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IMO, there are rare times in our history where things are done to us as a Nation and people set aside their difference and come together for one purpose and that is when we - as a nation - are attacked. I think people would then want us to respond.

Now, personally, I believe we could destroy NK without going nuclear, but that's my opinion and I know what that is worth. I believe that once Kim's immediate kingdom would be decimated, many of the NK's would lose heart because they would observe the fact that Lil Kim is mortal and not a god.

I would go scorched earth on him and show them we mean business. I think that in the near future, that could certainly be an option to consider if he still wants to keep flexing his muscles against those bigger than himself.
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  #224  
Old 9 August 2017, 12:53
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Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
I'm still skeptical that NORK has the nukes to begin with. January of 2016 they're testing an H-Bomb...in March of '16 they claim they have nukes they can fit on an ICBM. Either their bolstering in an effort to get a seat at the table, they have some shithot scientists, or their program is garbage. The US isn't viewing any of their threats as credible at this point in time either...otherwise you'd be seeing families getting evacuated from South Korea. I think a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.
I haven't seen anyone in the US government or military saying that the Norks have miniaturized nukes to fit their missiles. Everyone has carefully referenced a Washington Post story between occasions of calling the Washington Post "fake news." Is the Post practicing yellow journalism, stoking up a fire to create a war as with POTUS McKinley? Did someone in the .gov leak that information to the Post? If so, was that person loyal or disloyal to POTUS? The smoke and mirrors around the whole situation are maddening.

Regardless, if they don't have miniaturized nukes, they eventually will. The Russkies have had that technology for 70 years now and were never as picky about sharing it as we have been. Whether the threat is real now or not, it will be, and we'll have to face it now or then. If the threat is real now, and it isn't dealt with somehow, the passage of time will only result in the production of more of the warheads so that when (not if) they are unleashed, the damage will be even worse.

How the Russians and Chinese perceive our response doesn't really matter; neither country possesses nukes as anything other than a strategic deterrent, and they've proven that over time. If either wanted to use their nukes offensively against enemies the US has already demonstrated no willingness to defend, the Russians would have nuked Grozny and the Chinese would have nuked Taipei. Instead, the country paying the most attention to how the US handles North Korea will be Iran. If the Norks can pop a nuke over Tokyo, Taejon, Alaska, Guam, or the US west coast without being immediately wiped off the face of the earth, the Iranian ayatollahs will anticipate a similar response to their use of nukes over Tel Aviv, Mecca, or any US base in the region.

Perhaps, as Sixgun asserts, the Chinese could be negotiated into occupying North Korea in response to the Norks nuking Guam. However, when Iran draws the logical conclusion that there isn't any country willing and able to conduct a similar occupation of Iran and the US won't do anything, their nuclear handcuffs come off.

I do not think the USA will pre-emptively nuke North Korea without first consulting with China. If China threatens to respond by nuking the USA is when things get interesting. In 1950-51 the generals wanted to nuke China but POTUS Truman refused to go along; if POTUS Trump wants to pre-emptively nuke North Korea despite Chinese resistance, will the generals and/or intelligence agencies salute and obey or try to stop him? All the deep state leaks undermining the POTUS bring this back to my first paragraph: if the leakers are willing to do whatever it takes to bring down POTUS Trump regardless of the cost to America, are they willing to provide fake intelligence to provoke a war for an excuse to impeach him on war crimes charges? It's like Wag the Dog in reverse.
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  #225  
Old 9 August 2017, 12:57
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Originally Posted by KidA View Post
Then what though? Who steps in? Someone more sane? Or someone more crazy?
It will be just another fat asian. But, it will be someone new, and maybe a little easier to control.. Isnt that why we put so many other leaders in office around the world, not that we would interfere in other countrys elections and such..
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  #226  
Old 9 August 2017, 13:09
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One part of me thinks that Jong Un wants the US to act. If the US acts and kicks some ass he will save face in "losing" his hold on NK and then NK can move into working towards becoming modern. I am betting he thinks if he stamps his feet enough maybe we will send troops, take over the palace or whatever, and then he can step down and take a nice long paid for holiday on a beach somewhere.
I believe KJU craves one thing and one thing only. Power. I believe he would rather die than not be in power. The idea that we can convince him to retire/resign/etc is IMO looking at this from a western perspective.
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  #227  
Old 9 August 2017, 13:16
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Originally Posted by Gray Rhyno View Post
I believe KJU craves one thing and one thing only. Power. I believe he would rather die than not be in power. The idea that we can convince him to retire/resign/etc is IMO looking at this from a western perspective.
Concur. It would be like responding to the Rape of Naking in 1937 by us asking the Japanese Emperor to step down or face our wrath.
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  #228  
Old 9 August 2017, 13:19
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Originally Posted by Gray Rhyno View Post
I believe KJU craves one thing and one thing only. Power. I believe he would rather die than not be in power. The idea that we can convince him to retire/resign/etc is IMO looking at this from a western perspective.
Maybe - but looking at it long term over decades:

1: they've never attacked. They've had the ability to invade SK for decades, yet they never have.

2: They kinda sit quietly until they have a new capability, then they rattle cages: Look at us! Look what we did! To me that looks like they're desperately trying to provoke an attack - perhaps even to come out of it without much losses.

Invade the South, Lob a Nuke, etc, etc will get them monkey stomped. Bluster and provoke and make the US decide that we can't abide them having nukes, we invade/attack, it's over in a week, he lives (because he'd be in a bunker somewhere or come out waving the flag "to save the noble North Korean race from extinction at the hands of the evil Imperialist war forces") and blammo: new regime, he retires as a rich kid who stood up to the US (and saves his name and face) and in a few years they're a motorcycle travel destination like Vietnam.

The key to this is getting us to invade/attack them. Without that there's nothing. And he certainly can't attack first because then he's a war criminal, and our retaliation would be legion.

Sixgun - if he stepped down now, yes, he has the same rewards, but he loses face. If he provokes an attack he gets his out, doesn't lose face, and, as long as he doesn't attack first, no war crimes. All he's guilty of now is violating some paper sanctions.
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  #229  
Old 9 August 2017, 13:42
Keganswar Keganswar is offline
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I’m most worried that if we go to war with NK we will have to rebuild NK for the next 10 years.
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  #230  
Old 9 August 2017, 13:44
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Originally Posted by KidA View Post
The key to this is getting us to invade/attack them. Without that there's nothing. And he certainly can't attack first because then he's a war criminal, and our retaliation would be legion.
The key to his power IS the threat that we will invade and conquer. Without that threat he is nothing. He wants us to bluster and agitate him, so he can keep his people poor and himself in power. The last thing he wants is a satisfied populace in NK; that's when they start wondering why they are so poor and thinking how much his leadership sucks. The next to last thing he wants is a USA/SK attack, but he'd prefer the invasion/attack to a loss of personal power.
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  #231  
Old 9 August 2017, 13:45
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Originally Posted by KidA View Post
Sixgun - if he stepped down now, yes, he has the same rewards, but he loses face. If he provokes an attack he gets his out, doesn't lose face, and, as long as he doesn't attack first, no war crimes. All he's guilty of now is violating some paper sanctions.
If KJU thinks of himself as God incarnate, he not only doesn't care what we think, he doesn't care what we have to offer. Sanctions mean nothing unless carried out by the Chinese, but the current rhetoric on all sides suggest that if the Chinese did carry out the new sanctions in a way that actually affected KJU, the blame in most people's eyes (and especially KJU's) would fall on the USA. Just as a Nork attack on the USA could unite Americans, sanctions that actually affect KJU would likely see a resumption of the Korean War, a nuclear attack against the USA, or both with the full support of the Nork citizenry. The idea of a war crimes trial by mere foreigners against God would be met with righteous indignation by KJU and his people and would be just as likely to ensure a nuclear attack as anything else that could happen. It's like playing chicken with a kamikaze.
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  #232  
Old 9 August 2017, 13:58
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Originally Posted by ET1/ss nuke View Post
It's like playing chicken with a kamikaze.
^^^ This

And, we (I mean "we" in the "our esteemed leaders of the past 20 years) boxed ourselves into this corner...

Continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of...
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  #233  
Old 9 August 2017, 14:09
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^^^ This

And, we (I mean "we" in the "our esteemed leaders of the past 20 years) boxed ourselves into this corner...

Continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of...
Devil's advocate, and I'm not sure it's not wrong:

There's little downside to ignoring NK. Let's say they get a nuke, and means to deliver. So what? We have the means to stop it, as far as I know. So at what point is it really worrisome? 2 nukes? 5? 25?

Their buildup takes time, and 'ignoring' doesn't mean we do nothing. We improve our missile defense, improve our intelligence in anticipation of war, and sabotage the shit out of his scientists and program. And hey, maybe we get lucky and one of his generals shoots him in the face, or he drops his sig, or has a tragic dildo accident with his sex slave. Waiting brings an unknown result, with potential for better outcomes.

The alternative is known: mass casualties in SK and Japan, and the need to 'do something' after with a trashed, governmentless NK.
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  #234  
Old 9 August 2017, 14:12
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Originally Posted by ET1/ss nuke View Post
All the deep state leaks undermining the POTUS bring this back to my first paragraph: if the leakers are willing to do whatever it takes to bring down POTUS Trump regardless of the cost to America, are they willing to provide fake intelligence to provoke a war for an excuse to impeach him on war crimes charges? It's like Wag the Dog in reverse.
Or the flip side: the investigation heats up, something truly juicy is brought to light. Would NK be the means to put the investigation on hold?
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  #235  
Old 9 August 2017, 14:16
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There's little downside to ignoring NK.
Wasn't that Jimmy Carter's approach to the nuclear and conventional threat from the USSR when they were at their peak?
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  #236  
Old 9 August 2017, 14:21
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While the little fat kid is a loudmouth, I don't believe she is stupid. He can talk and make all the threats he wants and the international community just writes it off to bluster. If the little fat kid has one too many Twinkies and decides on his sugar high that he will fire a Nuke at the USA, the international community would unite against him. So he will just keep running his Jumiors Cheesecake filled mouth in hopes of provoking the US.

It's like the having cousin Eddie over for Christmas, he's annoying but in the end, harmless.
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  #237  
Old 9 August 2017, 14:25
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While the little fat kid is a loudmouth, I don't believe she is stupid. He can talk and make all the threats he wants and the international community just writes it off to bluster. If the little fat kid has one too many Twinkies and decides on his sugar high that he will fire a Nuke at the USA, the international community would unite against him. So he will just keep running his Jumiors Cheesecake filled mouth in hopes of provoking the US.

It's like the having cousin Eddie over for Christmas, he's annoying but in the end, harmless.
Isn't that what they said about the little, German dude with the funny moustache, early on?
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  #238  
Old 9 August 2017, 14:44
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Wasn't that Jimmy Carter's approach to the nuclear and conventional threat from the USSR when they were at their peak?
Again, we know the alternative. Waiting doesn't make it worse (unless you wait until they really can destroy America).
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  #239  
Old 9 August 2017, 15:07
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(unless you wait until they really can destroy America).
That's what worries me. No, they won't be able to kill us all like the Russkies still could, but they could provide the nudge needed to end the last vestiges of our constitutional republic. That could come from the over-reaction and backlash to an EMP over the West Coast, or from liberal hand-wringing over a pre-emptive strike. In the current political environment, either could result in a catastrophic acceleration of the soft coup already underway in DC. The point is that waiting until we are hit or hitting them before they can hit us are both scenarios that could screw us over hard as a country. We're danged if we do and danged if we don't, regardless of what does or doesn't happen to the people in North Korea. I don't know what we will do, and I don't even claim to know what we should do, but right now I think our republic is dancing on a razor's edge with no safer spot within reach.
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  #240  
Old 9 August 2017, 15:11
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Devil's advocate, and I'm not sure it's not wrong:

There's little downside to ignoring NK. Let's say they get a nuke, and means to deliver. So what? We have the means to stop it, as far as I know. So at what point is it really worrisome? 2 nukes? 5? 25?

Their buildup takes time, and 'ignoring' doesn't mean we do nothing. We improve our missile defense, improve our intelligence in anticipation of war, and sabotage the shit out of his scientists and program. And hey, maybe we get lucky and one of his generals shoots him in the face, or he drops his sig, or has a tragic dildo accident with his sex slave. Waiting brings an unknown result, with potential for better outcomes.

The alternative is known: mass casualties in SK and Japan, and the need to 'do something' after with a trashed, governmentless NK.
That briefs well...I guess. I care about America. Not Japan, China, SK, (lol) or Guam. As far as "improving intelligence", good luck. NK has a tight rein on anyone leaving their country. And we're doing a real bang-up job so far developing intel inside the country. Their intel is pretty good. They have the country on lock-down. As far as developing better missile technology, ok. That is measured in decades and not years.

Really, at the end of the day, all we can do is prepare and wait for NK to pull the trigger.
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