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  #1  
Old 17 June 2020, 03:04
edd1e22 edd1e22 is offline
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China vs India

Looks like things are getting heated:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...red-Ladakh/amp

It's been fisticuffs before but now it's turned into a shooting war with casualties on both sides. Both countries have large armies and are nuclear powers so this seems like a powder keg ready to go off.

Any insights from the members here on how this will play out?
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  #2  
Old 17 June 2020, 07:02
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At first glance seems like a crappy place to be fighting over. Second, the land (who owns it) has been in question for a long time with no set border there.
India built a highway up there with no real reason other than the ability to bring up troops quickly which has now peeved off the Chinese.
I don't think Indian likes that Nepal has swung over to the Chinese side and this adds to the bad vibes going on.
Doesn't Pakistan also claim this area?
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Old 17 June 2020, 09:23
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...Doesn't Pakistan also claim this area?
You are thinking about the Jammu and Kashmir areas as they are called - and China is in that area.

They have been in dispute since the two countries split with China slipping in the back door. That all started back during the split in 1947.
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Old 17 June 2020, 10:35
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You are thinking about the Jammu and Kashmir areas as they are called - and China is in that area.

They have been in dispute since the two countries split with China slipping in the back door. That all started back during the split in 1947.
The UK - The gift that keeps on giving...

Their mismanagement of India/China/Levant (along with the French, to a lessor degree) begat what we have today...

Oversimplified - yes. But true in so many ways as to stand scrutiny...
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Old 17 June 2020, 11:03
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China doesn't need to invade India to inflict pain. They are building massive dam's and playing water games with India to bring them to their knees. If anything you might see India doing covert and cyber raids to limit or destroy the dam building process.

India and the U.S have been building up trade and diplomatic relationships more rapidly since China's expansion and control campaign, IE; Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Philippines and south China Sea's man made Islands to control shipping.

Can you imagine what will happen when and if China controls the flow of water into India and holds an entire nation hostage with water rights?
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Old 17 June 2020, 12:01
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Originally Posted by DB8541 View Post
China doesn't need to invade India to inflict pain. They are building massive dam's and playing water games with India to bring them to their knees. If anything you might see India doing covert and cyber raids to limit or destroy the dam building process.

India and the U.S have been building up trade and diplomatic relationships more rapidly since China's expansion and control campaign, IE; Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Philippines and south China Sea's man made Islands to control shipping.

Can you imagine what will happen when and if China controls the flow of water into India and holds an entire nation hostage with water rights?
The first wars in human history were fought over water rights...
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Old 17 June 2020, 12:17
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Can you imagine what will happen when and if China controls the flow of water into India and holds an entire nation hostage with water rights?
Threatening the continued existence of a nation who have convinced themselves that they are the world's original people, religion and advanced culture is the type of thing that can invite responses that to our eyes would seem wholly disproportional and utterly surprising. I'm not sufficiently familiar with China's mentality on things like that to know whether they would be any more likely to anticipate getting nuked.
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Old 17 June 2020, 12:23
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Originally Posted by sixgun View Post
The UK - The gift that keeps on giving...

Their mismanagement of India/China/Levant (along with the French, to a lessor degree) begat what we have today...

Oversimplified - yes. But true in so many ways as to stand scrutiny...
Absolutely correct.

China has been steadily taking territory that "historically" it thinks it owns. Its been a long term and slow movement, with a region that is a complicated mess. Discretely, each looks like a different action, in totality, it is about staking its legacy claim. It ranges along the Indian border stretch on the west, to the Islands in dispute with Japan on the east. Disputed territory includes the Himalayan border, squatting on South China Sea islands, reclaiming Hong Kong, and Macau successfully and changing the deal now, Taiwan still sitting out there, considering Senkaku Islands its property, etc. They wrapped up border disputes with the Russians, at least.

On the Indo-China border, they fought an outright war in 1962 with India on the losing side. Prior to that, Tibet was rolled over as a country, with the Dalai Lama fleeing to India for refuge. China's been increasing mobility (rail, roads, and immigration) into the Tibetan plateau and the Himalayas as one of the largest accessible freshwater sources. Downstream, India, and Bangladesh are heavily reliant on the Brahmaputra river on the eastern stretch, a major source of water, and a contributor to the Gangetic Delta system. They can also intercept water from Kashmir, Nepal, and other spots in death by a thousand cuts approach, too. China has one plan using small nukes to change the river's direction; that would signal a significant escalation and probably not something they'd do until in a much more consolidated position (if it ever gets there). In response, India has been building airbases for C130s and C17s purchased from us, roads, lightweight artillery (M777), expanding its Navy... However, I don't see India gaining an advantage over the Chinese, period. Economically and strategically it lags behind, which is an understatement.

India's nuclear program was initiated to off-set China; Pakistan's to off-set India, and so on. The Maoist insurgency in Nepal ultimately topped with weak constitutional monarchs. Myanmar is pro-China. Similarly, the One-Belt One-Road and the String of Pearls economically and militarily extend control in and around bordering nations. 5G mobile infrastructure is about extending cyber control. China got control of a Port in Sri Lanka through a debt trap, therefore India bought the neighboring airport.

I don't think they're going to war, rather the posturing and positioning will continue to gain an advantage to bring India and other neighbors to the negotiating tables, sign treaties, to seal the deal on land/maritime borders through military-economic envelopment. My 2 cents...
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Old 17 June 2020, 13:00
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I don't think they're going to war, rather the posturing and positioning will continue to gain an advantage to bring India and other neighbors to the negotiating tables, sign treaties, to seal the deal on land/maritime borders through military-economic envelopment. My 2 cents...
From what I understand, not only is that the Chinese view, but they are pretty open about it. I wonder how India sees the same thing, and how far they would go to preserve themselves from creeping assimilation.
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Old 17 June 2020, 13:54
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Spent a lot of time in Ladakh. Some of the nicest, honest, hospitable people I have ever encountered. The most fond memories. I pray war does not devastate/destroy their region.

Kashmir- spent time there as well, beautiful area. But the people are always on edge, a bit off and violent in nature and confrontational and I can see how conflict continually plagued the area.

China is flexing its muscles once again. Going to get worse in many areas of the world - and we are too busy concerning ourselves with lgbt rights, racial equality, disbanding the police, protests and riots to do anything about it, to understand or confront the real threat China has. China must be laughing at us.
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Old 17 June 2020, 14:00
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China must be laughing at us.
I'm sure they are, it's embarrassing where our country is today.
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Old 17 June 2020, 14:31
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Good. More, harder, faster.

Once they kick it off for real, we can economically isolate both of them, repudiate all their debts and claims, freeze and then nationalize all their assets, shit all over the globalist corps invested in them and repatriate all their people back to their homelands. S/F....Ken M
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Old 17 June 2020, 14:37
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Good. More, harder, faster.

Once they kick it off for real, we can economically isolate both of them, repudiate all their debts and claims, freeze and then nationalize all their assets, shit all over the globalist corps invested in them and repatriate all their people back to their homelands. S/F....Ken M
I don't think there have been enough ruby shoes ever made to tap our way to that kind of dream.....
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  #14  
Old 17 June 2020, 15:28
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Originally Posted by ET1/ss nuke View Post
From what I understand, not only is that the Chinese view, but they are pretty open about it. I wonder how India sees the same thing, and how far they would go to preserve themselves from creeping assimilation.
Correct and good question. It would depend on how fast the Chinese move. Nuking a river to change its direction would provoke a big response. Ecologically and resource-wise it would be a grand disaster. The Chinese position has been clear. The difference IMO is the execution of a strategy over a period of time. Plans on paper look great, but they've been able to stick to it for 50 years.

India is terrible at the timely execution of anything. They don't have the high ground as the Chinese have a rock-solid relationship on the other front with Pakistan. Striking partnerships in places where their interests meet others is the only real option, for example with commonwealth countries or regional neighbors, who also share similar concerns.

While everyone else was playing transactional games cost-efficiency games or lulled into a sense of safety (include us), the Chinese steadily employed a grand "divide and conquer" approach regionally quite effectively. I do think, however, the Chinese played their hand a little too early and POTUS Trump deserves credit for getting them to out themselves, IMO. They could've continued the fake "yes, we'll play by the rules" with half baked measures to address transactional concerns for another decade and truly consolidate power.

Chinese going head to head against India would also be a terrible move on their part, considering the size of their respective land armies, quite possible attrition warfare, and the tough terrain. Chinese are pragmatists and an out-right conflict with a nuclear neighbor is a poor choice for any global aspirations, especially with the US, Japan, Australia, Canada, Vietnam, now the UK et al. adjusting to meet the challenge.

In summary, they have the high ground and can continue to sit back, nip away very slowly ratcheting their economic/trade envelopment in the region. When done slowly over time, no specific action will rise to an alarming position. If it does (like right now), they "deescalate" can just go back into the shadows to slow roll it. Frankly, its a pretty resilient approach, barring any moves on their part (mistake or forced).

Last edited by smp52; 17 June 2020 at 15:34.
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Old 17 June 2020, 15:40
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If I were COMSUBGRU-7, I might be quietly attempting to lay my hands on something that sounds like, and goes boom like, Indian torpedoes...
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Old 18 June 2020, 07:12
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I didn't realize firearms are banned in the region and both sides used clubs to beat on each other. Looks like the Chinese one upped the Indians by adding spikes to theirs.
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Old 19 June 2020, 08:24
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Good to see Indians starting to take a stand against China. Protests and Indians dumping Chinese goods in droves.

China maybe finally pushed a bit too far.
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Old 19 June 2020, 08:35
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Originally Posted by leopardprey View Post
Indians dumping Chinese goods in droves.
Hopefully before the importer sent the final wire to China.
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Old 19 June 2020, 10:12
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Originally Posted by leopardprey View Post
Good to see Indians starting to take a stand against China. Protests and Indians dumping Chinese goods in droves.
Indeed they are. One of my clients was telling my how there is a big push to start their own manufacturing of products
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Old 19 June 2020, 16:58
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I didn't realize firearms are banned in the region and both sides used clubs to beat on each other. Looks like the Chinese one upped the Indians by adding spikes to theirs.
I just saw that too. That's pretty crazy they literally beat them to death. I suspect firearms are now being snuck into the border area.
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