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Old 13 August 2015, 12:52
SWAT SWAT is offline
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Iraq Partitioned

You don't have to be a fortune teller to see this coming. I would add Lybia and Syria to the list. Iran has really increased its regional influence, but I think a rational policy of covert support of locals who more or less support our interest is the most viable option at this point.

http://news.yahoo.com/departing-us-a...191823708.html
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Old 13 August 2015, 13:56
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bobofthedesert bobofthedesert is offline
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Gee, it's nice someone finally figured this out...... I notice this blockhead waited until he was retiring to say this, pointing out the obvious earlier in his career might have shortened it.

It's been partitioned for centuries, it's called "all these different groups have their own land". The pretense by others, starting with the "colonial powers" that created all these fake countries, is where the problems come from. It really is just that simple.

Leave warring tribes that follow the moon god to do their BS. Trying to nation build in the Western sense with folks like this is a waste of time, they have no tradition of it, nor the inclination.
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Old 13 August 2015, 14:39
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Divide and conquer; this way it'll be easier for Iran next time they roll west.
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Old 13 August 2015, 23:00
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76 dead and 200+ injured in the latest Baghdad bombing! ISIS has claimed responsibility.

http://news.yahoo.com/truck-bomb-kil...050147065.html
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Old 20 August 2015, 10:35
RedBull RedBull is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWAT View Post
You don't have to be a fortune teller to see this coming. I would add Lybia and Syria to the list. Iran has really increased its regional influence, but I think a rational policy of covert support of locals who more or less support our interest is the most viable option at this point.

http://news.yahoo.com/departing-us-a...191823708.html
It's not reported much, but there is a more united movement in iran against the regime not only with the various kurdish groups (komalah, kdpi, kdp-i)but the baluchs (mainly Jundallah) and even a islamic azeri group now are picking up their weapons again and somewhat coordinating movements. Theres been about 15 attacks on iranian positions within the last 45 days between the groups.

But yes a unified Iraq was fucked from the start. Sunni and shia arabs just dont get along nor will they ever.

It'll probably end up being the kurds attempting to control from Kirkuk northward excluding Mosul, and the Shia and Sunnis going at it for other areas such as Ramadi, baji refinery area and Basra etc if it does kick off orflows that way. It's defdefinitely going to be a slap in the face of whichever administration in the US (whether republican or democrat) when the kurds push a independence referendum, which is not a if subject anymore but a when subject. And i think once the kurds do push the referendum it'll kick off the Arab Shia Sunni land grab issue.
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Old 20 August 2015, 12:09
cspillk9 cspillk9 is offline
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This is one of the few things I have ever agreed VP Biden about. My only issue is who the hell are we to make the decision? If Iraq is smart they would do this, but since they are NOT smart and they cannot make a decision without tribal bullshit, Sunni vs. Shia vs. Kurd vs. Everyone Else, it will never happen. Not to mention the screams of "Colonialism!".
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Old 21 August 2015, 03:12
jomini jomini is offline
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Originally Posted by RedBull View Post
It's not reported much, but there is a more united movement in iran against the regime not only with the various kurdish groups (komalah, kdpi, kdp-i)but the baluchs (mainly Jundallah) and even a islamic azeri group now are picking up their weapons again and somewhat coordinating movements. Theres been about 15 attacks on iranian positions within the last 45 days between the groups.

But yes a unified Iraq was fucked from the start. Sunni and shia arabs just dont get along nor will they ever.

It'll probably end up being the kurds attempting to control from Kirkuk northward excluding Mosul, and the Shia and Sunnis going at it for other areas such as Ramadi, baji refinery area and Basra etc if it does kick off orflows that way. It's defdefinitely going to be a slap in the face of whichever administration in the US (whether republican or democrat) when the kurds push a independence referendum, which is not a if subject anymore but a when subject. And i think once the kurds do push the referendum it'll kick off the Arab Shia Sunni land grab issue.
I think Abadi is happy to control the bottom third+ of the country, at least for the time being. More and more it seems like, from where I am and what I read anyway, that the central gov is willing to accept a situation where daesh/Sunni's keep the West and Kurds the North.

Not that I claim to be any sort of expert or to even have a complete picture.

There are guys I work with who talk a lot about going up to Erbil and joining the Pesh. I think it's unrealistic; but do you think they are more amenable to guys already in country joining as volunteers?
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Old 21 August 2015, 09:07
RedBull RedBull is offline
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Originally Posted by jomini View Post
I think Abadi is happy to control the bottom third+ of the country, at least for the time being. More and more it seems like, from where I am and what I read anyway, that the central gov is willing to accept a situation where daesh/Sunni's keep the West and Kurds the North.

Not that I claim to be any sort of expert or to even have a complete picture.

There are guys I work with who talk a lot about going up to Erbil and joining the Pesh. I think it's unrealistic; but do you think they are more amenable to guys already in country joining as volunteers?
For the Iraq thing, I don't see it being a amicable split between Sunni and Shia. The pipeline to Basra and Basra itself are definitely going to be issues as who ever controls the port for the most part controls the exports.

As for joining the pesh I really don't know. I'd personally wait and see how this president fiasco goes and the dust settles a bit on it. The krg (pdk/kdp) is still very hands off on westerners, the PUK still takes them but they(westerners) are used as a rear element for the most part. There are very few westerners on the frontline, and even fewer who are actually in direct fights against ISIS. If they speak sorani and possibly Arabic they might have a better chance. The only reason I got in with the group I'm with up here in qandil is I was able to pick up sorani rather quickly and didn't need a interpreter following me around to communicate efficiently.
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Old 29 October 2015, 12:03
Ratatat Ratatat is offline
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes-Picot_Agreement

The peoples of the region never wanted to be a recognized country in the first place. The lines were drawn by the British and French (and Russia was loosely involved), as an agreement on what to divide up if the Ottomans were defeated in WWI.

Iraq (along with Syria, Jordan, Turkey, et al) was drawn with fabricated boundaries, basically as an oil concessions grab, after the Ottomans lost the war alongside the Germans.

No real thought was paid to the different tribes of the region or their ongoing territorial claims. This is why you see the Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey. The Kurds were in the region long before their lands were split between three countries that didn't previously exist in the current form.

Funny that Western Civilization supports the Kurds now after completely screwing them in the agreement. They've revolted against every "nation" that has ever laid claimed to, or been awarded, their region.
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Old 28 September 2017, 00:36
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btq96r btq96r is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedBull View Post
It's defdefinitely going to be a slap in the face of whichever administration in the US (whether republican or democrat) when the kurds push a independence referendum, which is not a if subject anymore but a when subject. And i think once the kurds do push the referendum it'll kick off the Arab Shia Sunni land grab issue.
I wouldn't call this Kurdish Independence Referendum a slap in the face yet, but it's for sure changed the conversation. We'll see if the Iraqi government is huffing and puffing, or they will actually do anything given the current troubles.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/27/w...q.html?mcubz=3

Part of me thinks the countdown is on for what history will remember as the Kurdish Independence War. Here's hoping we're on the right side if it comes.
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Old 28 September 2017, 06:15
Dahlia|Black Dahlia|Black is offline
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I'm in Erbil at the moment. The city is quite and today there is a rush at banks because locals are withdrawing cash fearing the uncertainty.

I think the war between Iraq and Kurdistan is a possibility but not going to happen in the coming days. The US has its fingers on both Abadi and Barzani as well as the Russians who have a business interest with both governments. What would happen is that some sort of tolerable actions will be implemented by Abadi government, for example, the closure of Kurdistan airspace.

What would be more interesting is the influence of Maliki and/or Sadr on this saga. So far both of them haven't said anything. I won't be surprised if Abadi will be portrayed as a weak leader in Baghdad and therefore should be removed by Sadr or Maliki again. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if Barzani also pressured to step down for some type of immunity while the Kurds pick their leader through an election.

Kirkuk will still be a potential flashpoint in the conflict between Kurds and Arab (Baghdad)
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Old 15 October 2017, 22:21
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Kirkuk will still be a potential flashpoint in the conflict between Kurds and Arab (Baghdad)
Well, the Kirkuk situation seems to be coming up. We'll see if the Kurds are willing to fight for it, or go back to Kurdistan proper.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/1...220651177.html
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Old 16 October 2017, 01:18
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Seems there is some fighting going on.
http://www.rudaw.net/mobile/english/kurdistan/151020177
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Old 20 October 2017, 06:50
CAVmedic CAVmedic is offline
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More Fighting

Looks like we have a live one here. I sure hope the Kurds can pull through this. Too bad they couldn't take over all of Iraq...


http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/2...8-e4d7b7b00c2f
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  #15  
Old 20 October 2017, 07:14
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Borders will reflect the ethnic facts on the ground, one way or the other. You move the borders, move the people, or a little of both. It can be done with a little order and compassion, or, as I expect for the area, it'll be blood and fire. S/F....Ken M
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Old 21 October 2017, 20:57
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Looks like DahliaBlack called this shot about Kirkuk in his earlier post.

I never worked with the Kurds. Retired too soon. But wished they had their own chunk of land and independent govt.

From what I have seen & read I would take 10 Peshmerga women fighters over an average infantry squad.
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  #17  
Old 24 October 2017, 12:33
Dahlia|Black Dahlia|Black is offline
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Just like my earlier post, watch out for Sadr. I believe he's been grooming by both the US and the Russian as the person who can:

1. Push the Iranian influence, including stop the growing influence of the PMU, in Iraq. PMU is set by Iran to be the next Hezbollah in Iraq and Sadr will be the guy to prevent it. This advancement of the PMU in Kirkuk has shown that the despite what has been portrayed in many media including MSM, Ayatollah Sistani has weaker control over the PMU compared to Iran.

2. Sadr can serve as the interlocutor between the Shia and the Sunni and the PDK Kurds and the PUK Kurds.

I do not see that this fighting will escalate beyond what already happens now. However, if this situation continues as it is (Just like in Yemen - I spent a few years there), I wouldn't be surprised if the Kurds in Sulaymaniya or at least small groups working as the proxy of PUK start advocating for federal status of sulaymaniya.

As for their neighbors: Iran and Turkey have no interest in escalating the situation.
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