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  #21  
Old 6 February 2018, 11:31
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“Biggest loss in history”
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  #22  
Old 6 February 2018, 11:40
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Originally Posted by Purple36 View Post
Soooo, I've had 50K in savings...and thought WTH is it doing in savings? I need to put it into mutual funds. Just transferred everything into 3 Vanguard index funds....and then this happened not 3 days later.
If you are going to move a chunk into the market (that wasnt) you gotta dollar cost average that shit it. Like w/ your 50K, you could have spread it out, 10K a month over 5 months, or even more aggressive 10k/wk over 5 weeks. Something to keep you from risking large portions on swings that happen over days.

I had a "windfall" of just a little over 100K when I sold a place last march. I thought about putting it all in at once, but did 10k a week over 10 weeks. Hind sight, I COULD have had some more gains, but wasnt protected if something like this would have happened.
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  #23  
Old 6 February 2018, 11:42
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It's been reported that, numerically, Monday was the largest drop the DJIA ever received in a single day. Which was 398 points higher than the next largest, which occurred in 2008.
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  #24  
Old 6 February 2018, 11:54
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Not that hard, guys... long term artificially low interest rates about to zing upward because there is finally an economy that generates some productive activity. Money becomes more scarce because everyone wants to borrow, interest rates go up, and large investors re-allocate their portfolios to reflect more debt securities.
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  #25  
Old 6 February 2018, 12:01
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Originally Posted by ARCHANGELRANGER View Post
Not that hard, guys... long term artificially low interest rates about to zing upward because there is finally an economy that generates some productive activity. Money becomes more scarce because everyone wants to borrow, interest rates go up, and large investors re-allocate their portfolios to reflect more debt securities.
This pretty much nails it.

At 26K, a 2-3% selloff is going to be a bigger points number than when the Dow was averaging around 16k from 2013-2016.
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  #26  
Old 6 February 2018, 12:17
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So, how does the correction effect TSPs? Are we looking at TSPs the same way 401Ks are funded?
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  #27  
Old 6 February 2018, 12:17
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Originally Posted by Purple36 View Post
Soooo, I've had 50K in savings...and thought WTH is it doing in savings? I need to put it into mutual funds. Just transferred everything into 3 Vanguard index funds....and then this happened not 3 days later.
You don't lose anything until you sell. Buy more and wait for the climb back up.
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  #28  
Old 6 February 2018, 12:19
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Originally Posted by JAFO View Post
So, how does the correction effect TSPs? Are we looking at TSPs the same way 401Ks are funded?
If your TSP holdings include stocks, they will be affected. But you have not lost anything until you sell.
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  #29  
Old 6 February 2018, 12:33
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Originally Posted by Streck-Fu View Post
If your TSP holdings include stocks, they will be affected. But you have not lost anything until you sell.
Exactly right. This is less a market correction than a positional correction. The market will reach a debt-equity equilibrium, and the economic engine will begin to produce real growth. The initial goose in the market was a reflection of a disequilibrium between interest rates and capital demand.
If I had to guess, I would say the market has gone to a liquid state in anticipation of increased interest rates, and bond options are going crazy.
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  #30  
Old 6 February 2018, 12:40
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So far my TSP has only lost $1K. I am wondering if I should move everything into the G Fund today until this thing settles down.

Thoughts?
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  #31  
Old 6 February 2018, 12:59
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Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
So far my TSP has only lost $1K. I am wondering if I should move everything into the G Fund today until this thing settles down.

Thoughts?
When do you plan on using the money? That's what it all comes down to.

Personally, I'm staying 100% equity...but I'm also a couple decades behind you.

If you have 10 plus years before you begin taking distributions, I wouldn't worry too much. Our economic foundation is still strong. I see this as a pullback in the market, not a full scale recession. Once valuations have normalized a bit, I expect the train to begin chugging along again.
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  #32  
Old 6 February 2018, 13:07
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Originally Posted by DirtyDog0311 View Post
It's been reported that, numerically, Monday was the largest drop the DJIA ever received in a single day. Which was 398 points higher than the next largest, which occurred in 2008.
Not as a percentage though, not even in the top 20 largest drops, percentage-wise.
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  #33  
Old 6 February 2018, 13:08
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MacDuff View Post
When do you plan on using the money? That's what it all comes down to.

Personally, I'm staying 100% equity...but I'm also a couple decades behind you.

If you have 10 plus years before you begin taking distributions, I wouldn't worry too much. Our economic foundation is still strong. I see this as a pullback in the market, not a full scale recession. Once valuations have normalized a bit, I expect the train to begin chugging along again.

No time soon. I guess I still have scars from watching 2/3 of my TSP just go away in 2008 and don't want to see a repeat.
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  #34  
Old 6 February 2018, 13:10
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Two years ago this would have been a minor market self-correction. Today the fucking sky is falling. Blah, Blah, Blah. I'm sitting tight in both stocks and mutual funds.
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  #35  
Old 6 February 2018, 13:18
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I could not care less. I will be buying soon.

I have lost $21.
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  #36  
Old 6 February 2018, 13:29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
So far my TSP has only lost $1K. I am wondering if I should move everything into the G Fund today until this thing settles down.

Thoughts?
I was looking at doing the same thing the other day with both TSP and a Vanguard account from my civ job. I need to reallocate some things eventually anyway, but unless it looks like things are about to go seriously tits up I think I'm going to leave it alone for now.

That's not financial advice, but even if it was, never take financial advice from a pilot

P.S. Interesting read:

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014...-market-timer/

Last edited by hawkdrver; 6 February 2018 at 13:45.
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  #37  
Old 6 February 2018, 13:59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
So far my TSP has only lost $1K. I am wondering if I should move everything into the G Fund today until this thing settles down.

Thoughts?
NO! That is effectively selling so you will take the loss on value. Do not move it if you don't need it.

I had a conversation with civil service type out a MCAS Miramar several years ago who complained about the domestic stock fund (what ever the letter is) being down. I told him to hold tight if he doesn't need the money, let it sit or even put more $ into the fund to buy while down.

His response was, "I already moved it all...."

Silence....
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  #38  
Old 6 February 2018, 14:27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massgrunt View Post
This is all noise....
Yes, but a pretty big noise when you lose a bucket of money!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Expatmedic View Post
I have lost $21.
My loss since Thursday of last week is in the six figures...

Pretty flat for today so far....hoping we have bottomed out.
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  #39  
Old 6 February 2018, 15:44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
Pretty flat for today so far....hoping we have bottomed out.
There's some consensus that it has.
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  #40  
Old 6 February 2018, 15:59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Streck-Fu View Post
You don't lose anything until you sell. Buy more and wait for the climb back up.
Yeah, I'm fighting the fear. It is what it is. Thank you for the reminder!
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