SOCNET

Go Back   SOCNET: The Special Operations Community Network > General Topics > The Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #41  
Old 6 February 2018, 17:17
Dark Helmet's Avatar
Dark Helmet Dark Helmet is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 10,614
....and it looks like I am going to close today up about ~1.5% from the market open.

Now if I can only get myself to tear away from hitting the "refresh" toggle button on my brokerage dashboard....fucking crazy!
__________________
All Hail the Helmet!

SGT A/1/75 86-89
Ranger Class 13-87

"If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my children will have peace." - Thomas Paine
Reply With Quote
  #42  
Old 6 February 2018, 17:48
Silverbullet's Avatar
Silverbullet Silverbullet is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Bunker
Posts: 14,832
Step away from the computer.

Seriously that will drive you crazy.
Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 6 February 2018, 21:14
John6719's Avatar
John6719 John6719 is offline
?
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MN
Posts: 1,264
Had to open up my 401K and look today just to see. I'm so far from retirement it really doesn't matter. Market wasn't too bad to me really, especially considering I'm up over a grand just today in the stuff I bought yesterday in my short term investments.
Attached Images
File Type: png IMG_1326.PNG (41.9 KB, 210 views)
__________________
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man." - George Bernard Shaw

"OK, thankfully my wife doesn't read SOCNET -- something to do with it being filled with likeminded, immature people. Fuck her." - SOTB
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 6 February 2018, 22:22
Headhunter1965 Headhunter1965 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Tellico Plains, TN
Posts: 167
This is a great time to not have a mortgage. So glad we sold our house and got moved to the country before any of this shitshow of the elections gets here.
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 6 February 2018, 22:38
Hot Mess's Avatar
Hot Mess Hot Mess is offline
In Vino Veritas
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Where you vacation
Posts: 11,035
Quote:
Originally Posted by Headhunter1965 View Post
This is a great time to not have a mortgage. So glad we sold our house and got moved to the country before any of this shitshow of the elections gets here.
What exactly is going on in that post?
__________________
Come on boys, you got to do it right, pray to the moon in the middle of the night
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 6 February 2018, 22:49
KW Driver's Avatar
KW Driver KW Driver is offline
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: CONUS
Posts: 716
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkdrver View Post
I was looking at doing the same thing the other day with both TSP and a Vanguard account from my civ job. I need to reallocate some things eventually anyway, but unless it looks like things are about to go seriously tits up I think I'm going to leave it alone for now.

That's not financial advice, but even if it was, never take financial advice from a pilot

P.S. Interesting read:

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014...-market-timer/
fancy watches, flashy knives, and fast cars always appreciate. eventually. so long as you never use them.
__________________
Political Correctness is a doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical and radical minority, rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 6 February 2018, 23:05
Massgrunt's Avatar
Massgrunt Massgrunt is offline
Policeman Officer
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Day shift.
Posts: 12,144
Theoretically I've "lost" something like $15,000 except I haven't because I won't be doing anything but my automatic payroll deductions and throwing money at my kid's college fund here and there.
__________________
"The real problem was being able to stick it out, to sit in an office under the orders of a wee man in a dark gray suit and look out of the window and recall the bush country, the waving palms, the smell of sweat and cordite, the grunts of the men hauling jeeps over the river crossings, the copper-tasting fears just before the attack, and the wild, cruel joy of being alive afterward. To remember, and then go back to the ledgers and the commuter train, that was impossible. He knew he would eat his heart out if it ever came to that."

- "The Dogs of War" by Frederick Forsyth
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 6 February 2018, 23:25
8654maine 8654maine is offline
Another pool cleaner
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Maine
Posts: 4,476
Yeah, I'm in the 5 figure loss.

Will be buying low and holding.

Playing the long game.
Reply With Quote
  #49  
Old 7 February 2018, 00:03
firstshirt's Avatar
firstshirt firstshirt is offline
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Montucky
Posts: 708
It's all about perspective. On the one hand, I'm down 5 figures. On the other hand, I'm only down 3%. I'm close to tapping into those funds, but still far enough out that I shouldn't feel any long-term pain.
__________________
"A sober man's thoughts are a drunken man's words" - unk.
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 7 February 2018, 00:25
edd1e22 edd1e22 is offline
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: San Jose CA
Posts: 616
Depending on how you look at it, we're in the eighth to 9th year of a bull run. In other words, we're in the 11th inning of what is typically a nine inning game. If you've made money and you're close to retirement, I'd recommend caution and taking profit.
Reply With Quote
  #51  
Old 7 February 2018, 02:17
Massgrunt's Avatar
Massgrunt Massgrunt is offline
Policeman Officer
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Day shift.
Posts: 12,144
Quote:
Originally Posted by edd1e22 View Post
Depending on how you look at it, we're in the eighth to 9th year of a bull run. In other words, we're in the 11th inning of what is typically a nine inning game. If you've made money and you're close to retirement, I'd recommend caution and taking profit.
Anybody who says they can predict the future is wrong. How long is retirement?
__________________
"The real problem was being able to stick it out, to sit in an office under the orders of a wee man in a dark gray suit and look out of the window and recall the bush country, the waving palms, the smell of sweat and cordite, the grunts of the men hauling jeeps over the river crossings, the copper-tasting fears just before the attack, and the wild, cruel joy of being alive afterward. To remember, and then go back to the ledgers and the commuter train, that was impossible. He knew he would eat his heart out if it ever came to that."

- "The Dogs of War" by Frederick Forsyth
Reply With Quote
  #52  
Old 7 February 2018, 07:36
RGR.Montcalm's Avatar
RGR.Montcalm RGR.Montcalm is offline
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Clearing fields of fire
Posts: 10,938
According to the news this A.M. the DOW has come back 527 points- hope that going to offset your losses...
__________________
Shallow men believe in luck; strong men believe in cause and effect
Reply With Quote
  #53  
Old 7 February 2018, 10:40
MacDuff's Avatar
MacDuff MacDuff is offline
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Frankfort, KY
Posts: 819
Quote:
Originally Posted by Massgrunt View Post
Anybody who says they can predict the future is wrong. How long is retirement?
I'm going to disagree with you here.

I wouldn't ever say that you should be completely out of the market but if you're near or in the beginning of retirement, this is the ideal time to pare down equity exposure. With valuations in the current range, why not take some gains off the table? If you're already comfortable with the level of your retirement savings, it's better to go ahead and lock in some of those gains. Based on equity valuations and the amount of time since the last correction, this might be a good time to trend towards the lower end of one's equity allocation range.

Moving to a more conservative portfolio at the outset of retirement can be a prudent move to lessen sequence of returns risk. I'm not saying to keep it super conservative but possibly a 60/40 mix, depending on risk tolerance. The research based optimal equity exposure can be described as an inverted parabola, with the minimum point centered on the beginning of retirement.

As you continue through retirement, it often makes sense to increase your equity exposure. Michael Kitces has a good article on the value of the rising equity glidepath in retirement. You can check it out here.
__________________
Drinking from a firehose...
Reply With Quote
  #54  
Old 7 February 2018, 10:43
edd1e22 edd1e22 is offline
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: San Jose CA
Posts: 616
Quote:
Originally Posted by RGR.Montcalm View Post
According to the news this A.M. the DOW has come back 527 points- hope that going to offset your losses...
That's close of market yesterday although all I'm seeing is green which is a positive sign.
Reply With Quote
  #55  
Old 7 February 2018, 11:02
Justaclerk's Avatar
Justaclerk Justaclerk is offline
Drawing my cutlass
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: South Florida
Posts: 7,708
Let's see if today's oscillations dampen down after yesterday.
__________________
Quote:
Death is a farcical pile of bullshit.

I refuse to participate.

The Oatmeal
Quote:
...it could be raining pu$$y and troops will complain and blame the leadership for not providing an equal ration of a$$holes

Billy L-Bach
Quote:
In Special Forces we had a saying: "Work hard in silence, let your success do the talking."

Tracy
Reply With Quote
  #56  
Old 7 February 2018, 14:10
Jong Jong is offline
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fantasy Land
Posts: 1,296
Quote:
Originally Posted by Massgrunt View Post
This is all noise. The market goes up and down but has consistently gone up for around a hundred years through the Great Depression, two world wars, the mortgage crisis, etc. This is nothing and I'm not remotely considering changing a thing. If anyone knew when to sell they'd have done it already. Here's an interesting article on the ups and downs of the market.

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014...-market-timer/
I don't think it's all noise. Here is something to think about. There are numerous states plus this country that are heavily in debt. This article says the world is $233 Trillion dollars in debt.
http://www.businessinsider.com/global-debt-his-record-233-trillion-debt-to-gdp-falling-2018-1

How is that sustainable?

I have good friend who retired in his 30's from working on Wall Street and his group predicted the 08 crash. He is almost all cash right now. He has a bad feeling and I would agree with him. You say the stock market always rights itself, well if you look at the this website http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart and will see that after the crash in 1929 it took 30 years to get back to the same level it was in 1929. I'm no financial expert but that would leave me to believe that if the stock market crashes it would take 30 yrs to see just the money you invested it back and no return. Also look at the lead up to the 1929 crash, it is steep. History also says most crashes occur in Sep and Oct, I am guessing it's going to go then.
__________________
"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."

Winston Churchill

Put a small child in a playpen with an apple and a bunny. If s/he eats the apple and plays with the bunny, s/he's normal;but if s/he eats the bunny and plays with the apple, I'll buy you a new car. Somewhere along the line we must have been TAUGHT to do the wrong thing.

Maynard James Keenan
Reply With Quote
  #57  
Old 7 February 2018, 14:23
Steve83 Steve83 is offline
**** Cancer
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Solon
Posts: 1,466
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jong View Post
http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-...storical-chart and will see that after the crash in 1929 it took 30 years to get back to the same level it was in 1929. I'm no financial expert but that would leave me to believe that if the stock market crashes it would take 30 yrs to see just the money you invested it back and no return. Also look at the lead up to the 1929 crash, it is steep. History also says most crashes occur in Sep and Oct, I am guessing it's going to go then.
While I am concerned about the absolutely insane amount of debt, especially our own government debt, there something missing here.

There was a massive World War as well as the Korean war in that "30 year recovery period". The amount of value destruction in War time economies cannot be understated. That probably delayed the markets return.


Another distraction is that, from 2008-09 until about 2016, we really did not have any real economic growth. So, if you're trying to match the stock market to the normal business cycle, you're probably going to miss the mark by quite a bit. That said, the DOW and S&P have been acting like the economy was performing well, so there is definitely an argument that they have to correct.


Overall, it's not a bad assumption to say that the market is overpriced. Most large institutional investors think so too.

That's not exactly a bad thing.
__________________
L'État, c'est la grande fiction à travers laquelle tout le monde s’efforce de vivre aux dépens de tout le monde.

~ Frédéric Bastiat
Reply With Quote
  #58  
Old 7 February 2018, 14:57
DirtyDog0311 DirtyDog0311 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: South
Posts: 7,202
I do not believe corporations would be doing buy backs if the fundamentals were as sound as every talking head on TV proclaims them to be. You do buy backs if you want to give the illusion that your company is doing good, while not actually expanding infrastructure (in addition to getting bonuses and other personal goodies). In other words, if actual growth and real value could be compared to going to the gym to 'get swole', corporate buybacks would be the skinny fat loser injecting synthol. Sure you APPEAR to be bigger, but get put to the test and you'll fail every time.

If the fundamentals were great, companies would be using the cheap money to expand their business and labor pool. But they're not. Should be obvious that things aren't as great as that nasty hag Yellen says they are. They lie and manipulate numbers and formulas so much to fit agendas that no one knows the truth. Those that attempt to calculate the 'real' truth aren't painting a rosy picture.
Reply With Quote
  #59  
Old 7 February 2018, 15:02
Colonel Flagg Colonel Flagg is offline
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 667
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jong View Post
I don't think it's all noise. Here is something to think about. There are numerous states plus this country that are heavily in debt. This article says the world is $233 Trillion dollars in debt.
http://www.businessinsider.com/global-debt-his-record-233-trillion-debt-to-gdp-falling-2018-1

How is that sustainable?

I have good friend who retired in his 30's from working on Wall Street and his group predicted the 08 crash. He is almost all cash right now. He has a bad feeling and I would agree with him. You say the stock market always rights itself, well if you look at the this website http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart and will see that after the crash in 1929 it took 30 years to get back to the same level it was in 1929. I'm no financial expert but that would leave me to believe that if the stock market crashes it would take 30 yrs to see just the money you invested it back and no return. Also look at the lead up to the 1929 crash, it is steep. History also says most crashes occur in Sep and Oct, I am guessing it's going to go then.
I would be cautious of using the 1929 ramp up, crash and Great Depression as an analog to where we are possibly going.

Back then, they let a deflationary runaway train out of the station, and it literally took WWII, and a wartime economy for the US to recover and dominate.

To me it seems clear that deflation is considered totally and completely unacceptable to both governments and central banks the world over.

It doesn’t mean deflation can’t happen, it just means the entire world is pretty aligned against it by their actions.

In more recent times, big hits have come early in the year, with 2009 being a near world ending EPIC example.

Here’s something to consider, my old employer Amazon....everytime they hire a new full time employee employee it roughly means the loss of anywhere from 2-5 jobs that Amazon “borgs”.

I suspect there are a bunch of retailers that struggled thru Q4 that will be preparing large layoffs and store consolidations.

It’s kind of becoming an annual event.

Check out the collapse in longevity on the Fortune 500. Used to be a lifespan of approx 65 years, now under 14, projected to fall to 7.

I’ve always been a buy/hold Warren Buffett kind of guy, but we are seeing so much disruptive change.

For me, even the term diversification has “diversified”.

Stocks, bonds, house, emergency cash has turned into:

Property, privately held business cash flow, cash, crypto, gold, select stocks in retirement fund, and health/well-being/lifestyle choices. And some guns/ammunition. Life’s not worth living without at least a few good guns to shoot.

I reckon we will get smacked, hard at some stage, but I’m not sure how it will play out, nor when.

I think it’s importwn to learn the lessons of the past, but we need to be careful not to fall into an historical template that may not fit into the near future.
__________________
"Nobody can get the truth out of me because even I don't know what it is. I keep myself in a constant state of utter confusion."

Colonel Flagg, psychopathic guest star of M.A.S.H.
Reply With Quote
  #60  
Old 7 February 2018, 15:02
Massgrunt's Avatar
Massgrunt Massgrunt is offline
Policeman Officer
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Day shift.
Posts: 12,144
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacDuff View Post
I'm going to disagree with you here.

I wouldn't ever say that you should be completely out of the market but if you're near or in the beginning of retirement, this is the ideal time to pare down equity exposure. With valuations in the current range, why not take some gains off the table? If you're already comfortable with the level of your retirement savings, it's better to go ahead and lock in some of those gains. Based on equity valuations and the amount of time since the last correction, this might be a good time to trend towards the lower end of one's equity allocation range.

Moving to a more conservative portfolio at the outset of retirement can be a prudent move to lessen sequence of returns risk. I'm not saying to keep it super conservative but possibly a 60/40 mix, depending on risk tolerance. The research based optimal equity exposure can be described as an inverted parabola, with the minimum point centered on the beginning of retirement.

As you continue through retirement, it often makes sense to increase your equity exposure. Michael Kitces has a good article on the value of the rising equity glidepath in retirement. You can check it out here.
I agree with all that, but it should have been done already as part of the glide path, not suddenly as a response to the market.
__________________
"The real problem was being able to stick it out, to sit in an office under the orders of a wee man in a dark gray suit and look out of the window and recall the bush country, the waving palms, the smell of sweat and cordite, the grunts of the men hauling jeeps over the river crossings, the copper-tasting fears just before the attack, and the wild, cruel joy of being alive afterward. To remember, and then go back to the ledgers and the commuter train, that was impossible. He knew he would eat his heart out if it ever came to that."

- "The Dogs of War" by Frederick Forsyth
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Our new posting rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:25.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Socnet.com All Rights Reserved
© SOCNET 1996-2018