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  #61  
Old 7 February 2018, 15:10
Steve83 Steve83 is offline
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Originally Posted by DirtyDog0311 View Post
I do not believe corporations would be doing buy backs if the fundamentals were as sound as every talking head on TV proclaims them to be.
While I share your caution and agree with a portion of what you said after this, this is not technically correct.

Equity tends to be much more expensive than debt. In a artificially low interest rate environment, you'd adjust your capital structure to reflect that significantly cheaper debt environment. A slower economy usually means a lower Return on Equity for the firm, so you need to lower your cost of capital.

However, it is also worth noting that as a firm matures, it tends to rely less and less on equity for funding and focus on debt issues.
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  #62  
Old 7 February 2018, 15:21
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I agree with all that, but it should have been done already as part of the glide path, not suddenly as a response to the market.
Completely agreed. Definitely don't make moves because of the market.
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  #63  
Old 7 February 2018, 15:26
Jong Jong is offline
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While I am concerned about the absolutely insane amount of debt, especially our own government debt, there something missing here.

There was a massive World War as well as the Korean war in that "30 year recovery period". The amount of value destruction in War time economies cannot be understated. That probably delayed the markets return.


Another distraction is that, from 2008-09 until about 2016, we really did not have any real economic growth. So, if you're trying to match the stock market to the normal business cycle, you're probably going to miss the mark by quite a bit. That said, the DOW and S&P have been acting like the economy was performing well, so there is definitely an argument that they have to correct.


Overall, it's not a bad assumption to say that the market is overpriced. Most large institutional investors think so too.

That's not exactly a bad thing.
How do we know WWIII isn't right around the corner? As far as I've seen, the economy goes great until it doesn't. It's not like there is huge red flags and someone screaming the economy is going to tank! We just can't keep accumulating more debt. At some point the music just stops.
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  #64  
Old 7 February 2018, 15:30
Steve83 Steve83 is offline
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Originally Posted by Jong View Post
How do we know WWIII isn't right around the corner? As far as I've seen, the economy goes great until it doesn't. It's not like there is huge red flags and someone screaming the economy is going to tank! We just can't keep accumulating more debt. At some point the music just stops.
Well, the debt is an issue. Make no mistake I agree with you there.However, there are ways to address that. It seems as though, for now at least, the bond market thinks it can be addressed. We'll see how long that last.

Going further, while the US is not in an ideal situation, Japan, Italy, Spain, and a lot of European countries are in an even worse situation.
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  #65  
Old 7 February 2018, 15:35
Jong Jong is offline
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Originally Posted by Steve83 View Post
Well, the debt is an issue. Make no mistake I agree with you there.However, there are ways to address that. It seems as though, for now at least, the bond market thinks it can be addressed. We'll see how long that last.

Going further, while the US is not in an ideal situation, Japan, Italy, Spain, and a lot of European countries are in an even worse situation.
They are thus the world is in $233 trillion dollars in debt and we are in a world economy. A big enough players goes, it's a good bet we all go as fear takes over and people do stupid crap. I think the biggest problem is people try to think everything through logically but people act illogically.
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Put a small child in a playpen with an apple and a bunny. If s/he eats the apple and plays with the bunny, s/he's normal;but if s/he eats the bunny and plays with the apple, I'll buy you a new car. Somewhere along the line we must have been TAUGHT to do the wrong thing.

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  #66  
Old 7 February 2018, 16:44
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I just made my IRA contribution for the year. Hopefully the world doesn't end.
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  #67  
Old 7 February 2018, 17:07
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Me and Forestboy ain't worried about it. We can always fall back on our XRP.
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  #68  
Old 7 February 2018, 17:14
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Me and Forestboy ain't worried about it. We can always fall back on our XRP.
And failing that there's always the stash of dinar just waiting to be cashed in.
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  #69  
Old 7 February 2018, 18:06
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And failing that there's always the stash of dinar just waiting to be cashed in.
Loose lips sink ships.....
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  #70  
Old 8 February 2018, 17:41
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This shit has GOT to fucking stop. Hell, I should just buy one of Sharky's ex-wives a new house....the money would disappear just as fast....
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  #71  
Old 8 February 2018, 18:08
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Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
This shit has GOT to fucking stop. Hell, I should just buy one of Sharky's ex-wives a new house....the money would disappear just as fast....
I have about 80% of my funds tied to indexes. I'm feeling your pain.
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  #72  
Old 8 February 2018, 18:21
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I suspect yesterday was a dead cat bounce and its looking likely. Those that have enjoyed the bull run of the past 8 years and are close to retirement, I'd take profit.
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  #73  
Old 8 February 2018, 18:22
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Damn Deep State.
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  #74  
Old 8 February 2018, 18:23
Azatty Azatty is offline
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Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
This shit has GOT to fucking stop. Hell, I should just buy one of Sharky's ex-wives a new house....the money would disappear just as fast....
Relax, Sir. You're a full 17 basis points away from the shit really hitting the fan.
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  #75  
Old 8 February 2018, 18:49
DirtyDog0311 DirtyDog0311 is offline
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God damn Helmet, my condolences.

TBH, I didn't even look at the DJIA today until I stumbled upon this thread being bumped up. When I did, holeee shit. Another 1000 point drop.

Just as an aside, I consider the debit and credit cards shutting down (due to credit markets locking up) as the litmus test for when the shit officially hits the fan. Which, I read a while back we were within 48 hours of back in 2008. And even though I've spend a large portion of my money for the last 10 years getting toys for when that happens, I still don't see this being the 'big one'. Yet, anyway. The market is juiced to the gills, and this is just letting a big of air out of the balloon/bubble.
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  #76  
Old 8 February 2018, 18:54
Gsniper Gsniper is online now
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I'm sitting tight on all fronts. I went to mostly gold, silver and guns awhile back. I'm not even looking at my 401's or stocks. They will be what they will be. I'll not sink or swim with either.

Listening to Talking Heads, drinking Yuengling and watching everybody freak. Fuck it.
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  #77  
Old 8 February 2018, 19:17
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Been watching but luckily I pulled out a long time ago and all of my assets are tangibles of value and a small savings for quick cash flow.

I am no expert but given the historical %increase over the last 40 years of the market we should be sitting at 18500 or so with a strong base economy that is developing now. This correction has been long over due with 0% FED lending for 7 years keeping the banks afloat. So I won't be surprised if we are below 20,000 in another week of trading and slowly trickle down to below 19 somewhere before it is stable again.

I am going to get me another Yuengling now
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  #78  
Old 8 February 2018, 19:19
Gsniper Gsniper is online now
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#re arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic
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  #79  
Old 8 February 2018, 19:50
justamedic justamedic is offline
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Originally Posted by DB8541 View Post
Been watching but luckily I pulled out a long time ago and all of my assets are tangibles of value and a small savings for quick cash flow.

I am no expert but given the historical %increase over the last 40 years of the market we should be sitting at 18500 or so with a strong base economy that is developing now. This correction has been long over due with 0% FED lending for 7 years keeping the banks afloat. So I won't be surprised if we are below 20,000 in another week of trading and slowly trickle down to below 19 somewhere before it is stable again.

I am going to get me another Yuengling now
Buzzkill
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  #80  
Old 8 February 2018, 19:51
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Hey, at least we ain't the guys over in the bitcoin thread. THAT's tumultuous.
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