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  #101  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:06
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Originally Posted by B 2/75 View Post
Translation: Don't fuck with Israel unless you're ready to get body slammed in return.

Listening to the PM's speeches, they're getting more and more direct and to the point.
Having a 2nd strike / revenge capability is quite different from saving your nation / people from a nuclear strike. A single warhead of kindergarten size in Tel Aviv would more or less mean the end of Israel as a nation within its current borders.

That "body slam" means much less when you don't have a home to return too. Where would those Dolphin crews return too after launching?

The Israeli leadership owes it to its people to strike first in the event its even theorized Iran could launch its own strike or give / sell the capability to someone who would.

Even if they couldn't knock out Iran's ability to build / complete a bomb and a preemptive nuclear strike might guarantee a future strike against them it would buy time to figure out someway to protect their population.

Evacuation isn't even possible for Israel. They have been fighting and dying for that land since the creation of modern day Israel.

Where would they go?

Better to slug it out and hope you do enough destruction to your enemy that anyone they managed to hand a bomb off too thinks twice about using it.

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  #102  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:16
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Guy...is this the article you were referring to?

http://time.com/3958946/us-international-business-iran/

But other industries are also eyeing major business — including hotels and aviation — in a country that in desperate need of overhauling almost every industry. More than one U.S. hotel chain has visited Tehran during the past few months, and found a wide-open market with huge pent-up demand. There is not a single hotel of international standing in all of Iran, for example, since major chains like Marriott and Hilton have been shut out since the 1970s. “We have not had any internationally-managed hotels for four decades,” says Rabii, who has met with U.S. hotel chains, but would not name them. “We will have a flood of tourists and business people coming to Iran. We can fill hotels for years, or decades.”

This is priceless!! "Honey pack the bags and screw Disney World, we are going to Tehran!" I didn't realize all of the flood gates that would be opened by ending these sanctions.
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  #103  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:17
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Spitballing a 50kt device over(airburst) Tel Aviv gives roughly 225k killed and 350K wounded. Is that enough to end a nation, I doubt it, but I'm not there. I suspect delivery would be problematic unless the Iranians start spending a significant fraction of their GDP on IRBM's. And those have their own problems.

Israelis and the Jews in general are all monomaniacal about getting genocided, which is understandable. That's different than the threat being reasonable, at this point in time. S/F.....Ken M
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  #104  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:21
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Originally Posted by EchoFiveMike View Post
The Persians and Israelis had excellent relations under the Shah, I doubt they have declined that much that Israel would be a target before Riyadh or perhaps some Sunni holy site.

I think the Israelis are playing this up trying to get the US to carry their water for them. If they decide to do the work themselves, cool, but I'm tired of being the world's goon squad. What are our interests? As long as the oil flows, who gives a shit how many dead durkas there are?

Great points here and well validated by the simple fact that Iran has yet to openly attack Israel, a nuke isn't going to change this.

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Originally Posted by EchoFiveMike View Post
If the Iranians make a bomb, they'll openly test it. Nukes are bargaining pieces, if you don't make it public, why have them? Israel is an exception because they must stay on our good side to keep the free shit flowing. I think the Iranians have used this as a bargaining chip to get sanctions lifted in the knowledge they're going to be ahead of their real enemies, the Sunnis, in a decade or so anyways, nukes or not.

A point lost on too many, an untested device is a liability. There is little to no chance of a device being delivered without toughly testing it to include a test shot.



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Originally Posted by EchoFiveMike View Post
If the idiots nuke up, they lose the best protection they had, the US policy not to use nukes vs non-nuclear powers. Our population (stupidly) obeys and fetishes arbitrary and totally meaningless words on paper, things like the Hague Accords, the Geneva Conventions, international laws in general. Yeah, the current POTUS is weak sauce, but that won't always be the case, and if the durkas pull some underhanded terrorist shit like Sep 11, a POTUS with balls could erase Iran with complete freedom. Yeah, they'll be the historical revisionists, just like Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but he'll be in the history books regardless. S/F.....Ken M
Yup.
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  #105  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:24
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Originally Posted by EchoFiveMike View Post
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Spitballing a 50kt device over(airburst) Tel Aviv gives roughly 225k killed and 350K wounded. Is that enough to end a nation, I doubt it, but I'm not there. I suspect delivery would be problematic unless the Iranians start spending a significant fraction of their GDP on IRBM's. And those have their own problems.
That's if it can be derived via airburst, as of now they have no capability to do so. A ground detonation would cut that number down quite a bit.

By bomber would be their fastest and most available method, but that's pretty much a self correcting problem.
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  #106  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:25
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Originally Posted by EchoFiveMike View Post
The Persians and Israelis had excellent relations under the Shah, I doubt they have declined that much that Israel would be a target before Riyadh or perhaps some Sunni holy site.

I think the Israelis are playing this up trying to get the US to carry their water for them. If they decide to do the work themselves, cool, but I'm tired of being the world's goon squad. What are our interests? As long as the oil flows, who gives a shit how many dead durkas there are?

If the Iranians make a bomb, they'll openly test it. Nukes are bargaining pieces, if you don't make it public, why have them? Israel is an exception because they must stay on our good side to keep the free shit flowing. I think the Iranians have used this as a bargaining chip to get sanctions lifted in the knowledge they're going to be ahead of their real enemies, the Sunnis, in a decade or so anyways, nukes or not.

If the idiots nuke up, they lose the best protection they had, the US policy not to use nukes vs non-nuclear powers. Our population (stupidly) obeys and fetishes arbitrary and totally meaningless words on paper, things like the Hague Accords, the Geneva Conventions, international laws in general. Yeah, the current POTUS is weak sauce, but that won't always be the case, and if the durkas pull some underhanded terrorist shit like Sep 11, a POTUS with balls could erase Iran with complete freedom. Yeah, they'll be the historical revisionists, just like Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but he'll be in the history books regardless. S/F.....Ken M
Serious, and apologies in advance if stupid, how much do the Persians hate the Arabs more than Israel?

Saudi Arabia looks to be surrounded by Iranian proxies. Another large oil reserve on the open market doesn't help Saudi control. Do they have the ability and/or stomach to do anything?
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  #107  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EchoFiveMike View Post
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Spitballing a 50kt device over(airburst) Tel Aviv gives roughly 225k killed and 350K wounded. Is that enough to end a nation, I doubt it, but I'm not there. I suspect delivery would be problematic unless the Iranians start spending a significant fraction of their GDP on IRBM's. And those have their own problems.

Israelis and the Jews in general are all monomaniacal about getting genocided, which is understandable. That's different than the threat being reasonable, at this point in time. S/F.....Ken M

The state of NY would still exist if you took away New York City, hell its not even the capital. But detonate an airburst over NYC and the ability of NY to function as a state would be... diminished.

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  #108  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:30
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Search for the topic:
I predict an export boom in the coming months (We will see how fast the State Dept can amend the export regs). Within the year maybe significant military equipment (tanks, vessels, aircraft, etc). Dont think this will be as lucrative as war, but it will help a ton of small businesses who were all but crushed by the sequestrations ripple effects.

Lets do this!! (I aint the one fuckin this cat, i'm just holding its tail)
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  #109  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:33
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Originally Posted by Matchanu View Post
Sigh....

You do realize Malaysia and Indonesia are two different places?
Having visited Malaysia (and not Indonesia) and since they are quite proximate with similar Muslim cultures, I offered that article as an example of Muslims in that part of the world and why they still express a dislike with Israel even though they are not directly affected by them.
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  #110  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by morelocks View Post
Serious, and apologies in advance if stupid, how much do the Persians hate the Arabs more than Israel?

Saudi Arabia looks to be surrounded by Iranian proxies. Another large oil reserve on the open market doesn't help Saudi control. Do they have the ability and/or stomach to do anything?
The Persians hate the Sunni Arabs 133.5% more than Sunnis in general and 55.4% more than Jews.

You had to know you were gonna get a smart assed answer, right?

The Saudis and Iranian proxies are currently at open war in Yemen. The Saudis are clown shoes but they've got lots of hardware. S/F....Ken M
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  #111  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:39
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Originally Posted by Matchanu View Post
Sigh....

You do realize Malaysia and Indonesia are two different places?
Well, at least in both of those places you do not have to put up with all the Israeli hippy backpackers, as you do in Thailand and Nepal.
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  #112  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:40
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Originally Posted by Streck-Fu View Post
Having visited Malaysia (and not Indonesia) and since they are quite proximate with similar Muslim cultures, I offered that article as an example of Muslims in that part of the world and why they still express a dislike with Israel even though they are not directly affected by them.
So Mexico could be used in an example if we were talking about the US?

In any case, I never found that to be the case. Certainly there are elements of the Indonesian Muslim population that think that way but I'm willing to bet there are far more Christians who view Islam in an unfavorable light and would want it destroyed.

Whoopty friggin doo.

Masses of people hate things they know nothing about simply because someone else told them to.

Color me surprised.
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  #113  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:43
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Originally Posted by Matchanu View Post
So Mexico could be used in an example if we were talking about the US?

In any case, I never found that to be the case. Certainly there are elements of the Indonesian Muslim population that think that way but I'm willing to bet there are far more Christians who view Islam in an unfavorable light and would want it destroyed.

Whoopty friggin doo.

Masses of people hate things they know nothing about simply because someone else told them to.

Color me surprised.
I was responding to Kid A's post.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by KidA View Post
True.

Indonesia has 204 million Muslims. Do they give a shit about Israel and its destruction?

I honestly don't know. I know there are some extremists there, but my sense is that the majority don't give a damn about the Arab Israel squabbles even though they are Muslim.
So, it is quite probable that Muslims in both Malaysia and Indonesia dislike Israel for no other reason than they are told to....

Quote:
Masses of people hate things they know nothing about simply because someone else told them to.
Which is basically my point.
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  #114  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:44
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Originally Posted by leopardprey View Post
Well, at least in both of those places you do not have to put up with all the Israeli hippy backpackers, as you do in Thailand and Nepal.
I hardly saw any other Westerners in Jakarta or Java, even less Americans, couldn't tell if anyone was Israeli, probably not, but I seriously doubt the Indonesian population would give a shit.


There is far more hate towards the Dutch than anything else and even that isn't really hate and the Dutch who live there never feel threatened.

Hippies, on the other hand, are despised universally regardless of origin.
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  #115  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:48
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Which is basically my point.
Ironically, you missed mine.
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  #116  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:49
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so, how much influence does the province aka persia actually have over the ruling faction of Iran? Please, enlighten me, I want to understand this.
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  #117  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:51
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Originally Posted by EchoFiveMike View Post
The Persians hate the Sunni Arabs 133.5% more than Sunnis in general and 55.4% more than Jews.

You had to know you were gonna get a smart assed answer, right?

The Saudis and Iranian proxies are currently at open war in Yemen. The Saudis are clown shoes but they've got lots of hardware. S/F....Ken M
LOL. Nice.

I can read all I want, history & news, but I have never been to the region.

What I get from my reading is that Iran has a very long and expensive history of killing Arabs. From a strategic, tactical, and map level view they appear to have them surrounded at the moment. If they wanted to use a nuke against Saudi Arabia they could if their current method of proxies does not work.

That is why I asked the question. Appears to me that Iran spends quite a bit more on killing Arabs then Jews. "Wherever your treasure is, there the desires of your heart will also be.."

S/F
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  #118  
Old 15 July 2015, 14:57
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Originally Posted by ET1/ss nuke View Post
Only the ones that take the scriptures of their own religion seriously enough to act on their beliefs.
Personally I think most here are looking at the worst case scenario.
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  #119  
Old 15 July 2015, 15:07
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Personally I think most here are looking at the worst case scenario.
Maybe so. But a terrorist state getting nukes should cause you to look at the worst case scenario.

Is there an upside to Iran getting the bomb?
It's kind of hard to be optimistic over this.
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  #120  
Old 15 July 2015, 15:12
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Originally Posted by morelocks View Post
LOL. Nice.

I can read all I want, history & news, but I have never been to the region.

What I get from my reading is that Iran has a very long and expensive history of killing Arabs. From a strategic, tactical, and map level view they appear to have them surrounded at the moment. If they wanted to use a nuke against Saudi Arabia they could if their current method of proxies does not work.

That is why I asked the question. Appears to me that Iran spends quite a bit more on killing Arabs then Jews. "Wherever your treasure is, there the desires of your heart will also be.."

S/F
Like I said, the tide of time is in favor of the Iranians, the Sunnis are fragmented. They don't need a nuke, but they're not going to tolerate a bunch of foreigners sticking their noses in all over their country. It's about national sovereignty, and also in this case, sorta like NK style extortion in the furtherance of other interests.

Frankly, I'd be perfectly happy if the Israelis nuked the Iranians, but I don't want us getting pulled into this bullshit, militarily. It's not our fucking problem. Like I said, if the Iranians nuke up and get stupid, there's nothing stopping a President with balls from cauterizing their nation. We're in a completely different security position than Israel. Oh well, life's not fair, not our fault or our problem. Again, I think the Israelis are doing the "poor little me thing" way too much. They got more tanks, more planes and WAY more competence than everybody else in the region combined. They can handle this shit just fine.

They're just mooching free shit, which we stupidly give, much like the South Koreans. Now, to be honest, our MIC makes money off this situation too. The people getting fucked are the taxpayers. S/F.....Ken M
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